Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Jan. 21

Preview: The rain is supposed to relent for a day, but I’m sure there will still be moisture in it today so tread lightly. The rain is due back on Sunday and they could only get enough horses for eight races. What happened to our drought? The first half of the card today isn’t very attractive.

Race 6 – SA
#7 Wonderful Lie (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: Won over a good track at Del Mar, so any wetness today should just be fine. Has some late kick and a 7-1-4-1 record over the track.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – SA
#4 Battle of Midway (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: There are a pair if Bob Baffert horses in this maiden race, but I’m going with trainer Jerry Hollendorfer with this first-time starter by Smart Strike, a sire that hits at 14% first time out.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#11 Twirling Tiger (12-1) ***
Our Eyes: This gelding is coming out of a key race that has produced two winners already. He should like a wet track and has good speed.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Jan. 21

Race 2: #1 Birds Gone Wild (12-1): Going to take a shot with this long shot. He is coming in from Finger Lakes and coming out of a key race. Trainer Anthony Ferraro is 25% with horses coming off a 46 to 90-day layoff.

Race 5: #1 Maddymax (10-1): Just throw out that last race. Have no idead what happened but she is better than that. She has won over this track before and jockey Dean Butler and trainer Bernell Rhone are a good combination.

Race 6: #1 Realism (3-1): This filly finished sixth in a maiden race at Saratoga, which is better than anything any other horse in this race has done. Trainer Bill Mott comes in and gets Fernando De La Cruz to ride.

Race 8: #4 Freethinker (4-1): This mare is first time in the Wayne Mogge barn and back on the turf. Mogge is 21% with horses first time in his care and leading jockey Daniel Centeno takes the mount.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs for Friday, Jan. 20

NOTE: No Santa Anita picks for Friday. I don’t even know if they will run with the weather forecast. Saturday should be fine, but Sunday might be an issue and they only drew enough horses for 8 races on Sunday.

Race 2 – Tam
#9 Sainte Therese (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly is coming up from South Florida and takes a drop in class. She cuts back from two turns and figures to be closing down the lane. Trainer Jason DaCosta has started to win races off a slow start.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 9-1-2.

Race 5 – Tam
#4 World Changer (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: Big jockey switch here as leading rider Daniel Centeno jumps on this gelding taking a slight drop in class.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#5 Rapo (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Claimed out last race, moves up and gets a positive jockey switch from slumping Scott Spieth to Edwin Gonzalez.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 5-4-9.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, Jan. 18

Race 4 – Tam
#6 String Puppet (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Bernell Rhone claimed this 4-year-old for himself and he puts jockey Dean Butler aboard. The gelding seems to hold a class edge here and cuts back from two turns to 7 furlongs.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – Tam
#3 Cuban Cowboy (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Another horse that is cutting back from two turns to one turn. Trainer Max Ubide is 31% making the move from a route to a sprint plus red hot jockey Edwin Gonzalez keeps the mount.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#10 Buch of Daisies (9-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Efren Loza Jr. has parachuted in to Tampa with success in the past and he tries again here. He is 34% with horses off a 46-90 days.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 10-11-9.

Race 9 – Tam
#2 O K by Me (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: This mare runs at her lowest level ever and has been facing way better. Has early speed and now is in the barn of Kathleen O’Connell. Jockey Wilmer Garcia jumps on and he won three races one day over the weekend.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Monday, Jan. 16

Preview: OK, let’s try this again. Santa Anita pulled the one turf race off the grass Sunday and they are shooting for today after all the wet weather. They better be because they have a few on the grass.

Race 1 – SA
#4 Moscato Girl (6-1) ***
Our Eyes: Jockey Flavien Prat jumps on this mare who used to run a lot in these parts. She has been on Northern California for trainer Bill McLean. She likes to lie close to the pace so look for Prat to egt over the the rail and press the pace.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#9 Yellow Bonnet (6-1) (turf only) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Mark Glatt tried to keep her on the turf at Del Mar, but it was taken off so she had a six-week freshening. Hat Trick offspring win at a 14% rate on the grass. Joe Talmo keeps the mount and Glatt is 20% off a layoff like this.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – SA
#4 Surfside Sunset (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This colt comes out of a key Del Mar race that has produced three next out winners. Kent Desormeaux rides for one of his main men, Bob Hess Jr. Showed no early speed last but a nice closing kick. Going two turns for the first time might mean more speed.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 10 – SA
#9 Calle Kingpin (12-1) turf only ***
Our Eyes: I love when offspring of Street Boss run first time on the turf (18% winners) and this 3-year-old is out of a Theactrical mare (16% winners). Jockey Stewart Elliott is 22% with trainer Mike Puype and coming off a Sunday win.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Sunday, Jan. 15

Preview: Hopefully today will mark a return to grass racing after a wet week in Arcadia, but don’t count your chickens until Santa Anita announces it. Luckily, there is only one grass race.

Race 3 – SA
#3 Tiz No Bluff (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding runs in a maiden claimer for the first time and has a bullet work showing for trainer Ron Ellis and jockey Joe Talamo.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#10 Wise Curlin (10-1) (turf only) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Peter Eurton tried get this son of Curlin on the grass at Golden Gate but it was taken off. The 4-year-old still showed good speed and jockey Mario Gutierrez will need from this outside post.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 4 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – SA
#8 Iron Rob (6-1) ***
Our Eyes: This gelding takes a drop in class after facing much better for most of his career. Jockey Corey Nakatani keeps the mount.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Sunday, Jan. 15

Preview: Jockey Edwin Gonzalez and trainer Jamie Ness are riding a hot streak the last 10 days or so. Keep it in mind. Jockey Wilmer Garcia is riding well and had three winners on Saturday.

Race 3 – Tam
#9 Silent Admirer (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding ships up from Gulfstream Park after his first race in eight months. He showed brief speed and then tired to finish sixth. He comes to Tampa and drops to his lowest level ever. He might hold a class edge over these.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 9-8.

Race 4 – Tam
#11 D’wild Kiss (5-2) *****
Our Eyes: This look a single to me. It’s Ness and Gonzalez. This mare has the top Brisnet Early and Late Pace Ratings plus the top class number.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win and 10 units to place.

Race 5 – Tam
#4 Pazzaluna (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Laurel Park shippers have done well at this meet and this filly ships down and drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. Gonzalez rides which is a plus..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 4-2-3.

Race 8 – Tam
#1 Polar Air (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Chris Block knows how to get them ready off a long layoff as he wins with 21% of his starters off a 90-plus day layoff or more. He also gets leading jockey Daniel Centeno to ride.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 1-2-11.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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