Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Sunday, Aug. 5

FIRST RACE: 1. Midnight Soot, 2. Aquila, 3. Upper Room. LONG SHOT: Zippy Groom.

SECOND RACE: 1. DER LU (BEST BET), 2. Bizwhacks, 3. Keeper Ofthe Stars. LONG SHOT: Mercy Mercy.

THIRD RACE: 1. Arawak, 2. River Boyne, 3. Calexman. LONG SHOT: Inscom.

FOURTH RACE: 1. Z Z Tiger, 2. Lucky Hand, 3. Gypsy Blu. LONG SHOT: Dislitleaglecanfly.

FIFTH RACE: 1. Bahamian, 2. Sir Eddie, 3. Eskimo Roses. LONG SHOT: Rumpus Cat.
Trainer Simon Callaghan doesn’t ride jockey Mario Gutierrez very much but when they get together it turns out decent. They are 3-for-10 the last two years at Del Mar. In today’s fifth race, Gutierrez rides Bahamian (12-1). This 3-year-old colt is making his third race off the layoff, putting blinkers on and getting on the turf course for the first time. The Maryland-sire Freedom Child gets 17 percent winners first time on the grass.

SIXTH RACE: 1. Tyfosha, 2. Spring Lily, 3. Hot Autumn. LONG SHOT: Summer’s Indy.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. Tiny Tina, 2. Mischievous Song, 3. Bunny Yogurt. LONG SHOT: Drift Away.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. Bellafina, 2. Dragic, 3. Del Mar May. LONG SHOT: Lady Lucy.

NINTH RACE: 1. Catch Fire, 2. Supreme Giant, 3. Twisted Road. LONG SHOT: Odyssey Explorer.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

SATURDAY’S RESULTS

Top choice winners: 1 (It’s Gonna Hurt $11.60, first race)

Second choice winners: 2 (Closing Time $6, second; Cambodia $5.40, eighth)

Third choice winners: 4) (Conquest Typhoon $10, third; Royal Descendent $4.60, fifth; Sigalert $7.60, seventh; Tatters to Riches $15.40, ninth)

Long shot winners: 0

 

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Thursday, July 19

Preview: Trainers Doug O’Neill and Jerry Hollendorfer, who were mediocre in 2017, dominated on opening day, winning the first seven races between them. Give their horses an extra look, especially O’Neill, who gets hot and then cools off.

Trainers to watch
PHIL D’AMATO: Tied for the Del Mar training title last summer with 18 wins and his stable has only gotten stronger since then. He is a monster on the turf with 12 wins and 11 seconds from 66 starters. This summer look for improved numbers on the dirt and with younger horses.

RICHARD BALTAS: He tied D’Amato for the crown a year ago. Surprisingly, he beat D’Amato on the grass, leading all trainer with 13 winners on the green. One area of weakness is first-time starters so stay away from them.

PETER MILLER: Last summer wasn’t the best for the Carlsbad resident who annually starts a ton of horses at the seaside oval. He had more than twice has many seconds and thirds (24 and 16) as wins (15). No doubt he wants to turn those numbers around. Don’t be afraid of horses showing San Luis Rey Downs works because he has a portion of his stable there. Miller was second in dirt wins and victories by 2-year-olds. He does a lot of damage with claimers and maiden claimers, but you often don’t get a square price.

MARK GLATT: He had a really good summer under the radar last year, finishing tied for third in the standings with Miller (15 wins) from far less starters (68). He also is sneaky on the grass with eight wins from 37 starts. Betting on all of Glatt’s starters would have produced a flat-bet profit, according to Jim Mazur’s The Del Mar Handicapper 2018.

DOUG O’NEILL: It will be a race to see who starts more horses this meet: Miller or O’Neill. The O’Neill barn gets a lot of horses from J. Paul Reddam and a lot sired by Square Eddie so watch for that combination. O’Neill was tied for third in dirt wins (nine) and grass can be a weakness. However, look at turf sprints because in 2016 O’Neill did well in that category.

OTHERS: Bob Baffert has his second Triple Crown winner in four years but like American Pharoah, Justify won’t run at Del Mar. Baffert led all trainers with 12 dirt wins, with half of them coming from 2-year-olds. He is also usually strong in the sprint and handicap divisions. The best betting option is “the other Baffert.” When he has two horses in the same race, bet the one with the higher odds plus bet an exacta box of his two horses. … Jerry Hollendorfer had just five winners a year ago but he got hot during Santa Anita and might be back to his old self. Watch out for his 2-year-olds, especially the fillies, one of which (Brill) is running on opening day. … Michael McCarthy, the former Todd Pletcher assistant, is starting to get better stock after finishing last summer for third in dirt wins (nine). According to Mazur’s book, McCarthy produced a huge $73 flat-bet profit. … Simon Callaghan is another younger trainer to watch after he had seven 2-year-old winners in 2017. … Steve Miyadi is also good with 2-year-olds (four wins) and first-time starters (three of 11). … Jim Cassidy, the life-long New York Yankees fan, is 7-for-13 in turf sprints the last three years with a profit of $137, according Mazur’s book. … Tom Proctor, who trains mainly for Glen Hill Farm, is a whiz on the turf and he went 6-for-15 at 2017 meet for a flat-bet profit, but don’t expect any large prices because his horses get bet.

FIRST RACE: 1. Watch Me Burn, 2. Jellybeankristine, 3. No Thanks Erik. LONG SHOT: Lakerzwin.

SECOND RACE: 1. Gutsy Effort, 2. Welldidyougetit, 3. Latitude. LONG SHOT: June Two Four.

THIRD RACE: 1. PASTIME (best bet), 2. G Q Covergirl, 3. Painting Corners. LONG SHOT: Invested Prospect.
Let me just say this up front there is no way we are getting the 12-1 morning line on No. 8 Pastime in today’s third race. Trainer Victoria Oliver brings a small string to Del Mar almost every year from Kentucky and always seem to win at a good price, but the word is already out on social media. That being said Oliver is 4-for-11 at Del Mar with horses off a 31- to 60-day layoff like this filly and the average winning price is $20, according to Jim Mazur’s The Del Mar Handicapper 2018.

FOURTH RACE: 1. Robin’s Love, 2. Cylinders, 3. Lil Bit Dangerous. LONG SHOT: Go Smiley Go.

FIFTH RACE: 1. Memorable Election, 2. Rockaway, 3. Ivy Mike. LONG SHOT: Master Ruler.

SIXTH RACE: 1. Magic Musketier, 2. Andesh, 3. Inscom. LONG SHOT: Soltero.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. Secret Spice, 2. Moonshine Memories, 3. Show It N Moe It. LONG SHOT: Treasuring.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. Majorie E, 2. Venue, 3. Oh Pretty Woman. LONG SHOT: Unusual Gold.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS

Top choice winners: 2 (Shivermetimbers $4.60, sixth race; Brill $3.40, seventh)

Second choice winners: 1 (Super Duper Cooper $6.40, ninth)

Third choice winners: 3 (Eighty Three $10.60, third; Dichotomy $5.40, fourth; Ann Arbor Eddie $20, fifth)

Long shot winners: 1 (Jimmy Chila $7, second)

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Friday, July 15 (Opening day)

Preview: It’s Christmas Day in July as Del Mar opens. This is the second year of the dirt main track and the new widened turf course. Just a reminder it’s been 3 weeks since turf horses race in Southern California. Last summer Rafael Bejarano let the meet with 14 grass winners followed by Flavien Prat with 13. However, at the recent Santa Anita meet, Prat lapped the field with 22 grass wins and scoring 34% of the time.

Race 1: 1. #3 Successful Runner (3-1), 2. Hadfunlastnight, 3. Saddle Soar. LONG SHOT: My Secret Affair.
Trainer Chris Hartman makes his first appearance at Del Mar, but make no mistake this guy can train with a 24% win percentage mostly in the Midwest. This 7-year-old has tactical speed, which is key on the main track.

Race 2: 1. Radish, 2. I’ll be Around, 3. Veiled Heat. LONG SHOT: Cougar Creek.

Race 3: 1. Glory Bound, 2. Rye, 3. Ace Deuce. LONG SHOT: Preacher Roe.

Race 4: 1. Nextdoorneighbor, 2. Drover Crazy, 3. Madelyn’s Wild Max. LONG SHOT: Cougar Country.

Race 5: 1. #5 La Boheme (6-1), 2. Cover Song, 3. Zip N Bayou. LONG SHOT: Grandma’s Hands.
We have already extolled the virtues of jockey Falvien Prat on the turf, who is on this filly for trainer Richard Mandella, who is 21% with beaten favorites and 32% in allowance races. Mandella and Prat were 18% at Del Mar last year.

Race 6: 1. Warren’s Honey Bee, 2. Turf Club Queen, 3. Silver Oak. LONG SHOT: Wondrous Cat.

Race 7: 1. #2 Grazen Sky (5-1) BEST BET, 2. Westfest, 3. Forest Blue. LONG SHOT: Missing Groom.
This colt owns the top Brisnet Late Pace Rating by nine points so I can see jockey Tyler Baze letting the speed go and closing in the lane. Trainer Steve Miyadi is 23% with beaten favorites.

Race 8: 1. #8 Arcature (8-1), 2. Dressed in Hermes, 3. Moonlight Drive. LONG SHOT: Diplodocus.
Tough to tell what happened in this 3-year-olds last race as he finished eighth. Maybe it was the longer distance as he shortens up here for Prat and Simon Callaghan. Prat had his choice of several in here and takes this son of Archarcharch. The trip will be key here as a full field of 14 is entered.

Race 9: 1. Got Even, 2. Dr. Dorr, 3. Chief of Staff, LONG SHOT: Mad Bum.

Race 10: 1. #9 Langahm (9-2), 2. Airlite, 3. Scuderia. LONG SHOT: Alaskan Son.
This is a first-time starter that cost over $400K at auction. I love this Australian sire Fastnet Rock and his offspring should love the turf and the distance. Trainer John Sadler is 21% with horses going a route first time and jockey Mike Smith rides.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Arlington Park, Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita (plus Arlington Park) opinions for Saturday, July 9

Preview: Interesting card just because there are a pair of 2-year-old stakes. Looking for that Pick 6 and late Pick 4 single? Looking no further than Navy Hymn (4-5) in the sixth race. Don’t see him beaten, but that might be the kiss of death. And don’t forget that 2015 Kentucky Derby runner-up Firing Line (also 4-5) makes his return to the races in the fourth and trainer Simon Callaghan has admitted he isn’t fully cranked up.

Race 5 – SA: #2 Tap It All (8-1): This filly cost $800K at auction in March and she has finished second in all three of her maiden races this year for trainer Doug O’Neill. By Tapizar, I think this 2-year-old has been wanting more ground and she gets an extra half-furlong here. Sure, she’s a maiden but O’Neill is 23% with beaten favorites and new rider Santiago Gonzalez takes over.

Race 7 – SA: #1 Big Break (4-1): I’m not the biggest fan of trainer Steve Knapp and in fact in most cases if Knapp wins, I lose, but here is the one category Knapp excels in: beaten favorites. He is 41% with those kind of horses. This mare is moving up in class, but her early speed will be a weapon from the inside post.

ARLINGTON PARK

Race 4 (Modesty Handicap): 1. Faufiler, 2. No Fault of Mine, 3. Al’s Gal, 4. Marypop.

Race 6 (The Stars and Stripes): 1. Roman Approval, 2. Quiet Force, 3. The Pizza Man, 4. Bullards Alley.

Race 7 (Arlington Handicap): 1. Kasaqui, 2. Messi, 3. Roman Approval, 4. Only in America.
Be careful because ROMAN APPROVAL and QUIET FORCE are cross-entered in the Stars and Stripes plus the Arlington Handicap.

Race 8 (American Derby): 1. Oscar Nominated, 2. Two Step Time, 3. J R’s Holiday, 4. The Rouge Diesel.

Good luck.

Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Sunday, June 5

Preview: We say goodbye to the hillside turf course as renovations start this week for the fall meet, which includes the Breeders’ Cup. There are four races on it today. There are five races on the dirt and some trainers to think twice about are Bill Spawr (1-for-15), Kristin Mulhall (1-13), Jeff Bonde (0-12) and Eric Kruljac (0-11).

Race 4: #5 Fruity (6-1): This filly came running in her second try down the hill and now trainer Simon Callaghan puts the blinkers on, a move he is 29% with. The 4-year-old should come running in the stretch for new jockey Flavien Prat, who is 29% with Callaghan.

Race 6: #2 Airlite (9-2): Here we are again down the hill with that man Flavien Prat. He rides most of trainer Richard Mandella’s horses and Mandella is 4-for-10 with horses second time on the grass. The 3-year-old finished third in his debut and should only improve.

Race 9: #8 Infinite Magic (6-1): This gelding is in the care of trainer Ted West for the first time and he is 31% with horses in that situation. Yes, Flavien Prat is aboard. The gelding has a second and third over the course and is cutting back from a route race.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Jan. 8

Preview: Again due to the weather, no turf racing. In fact, no turf racing the entire week per Santa Anita management. Thursday’s card saw speed dominate early but as the track dried out closers were able to win. How it plays today is anyone’s guess.

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Race 2: #5 Swag Money (6-1)

Finished fifth in a maiden claimer at Del Mar and the top two finishers from that race came back to win. Joe Talamo keeps the mount for trainer Keith Desormeaux. Think the time off will serve him well.

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Race 4: #5 Fugacious Dancer (4-1)

Broke slow in debut last May but still finished third. Trainer Simon Callaghan is 19% with horse off a 90-plus-day layoff. Callaghan is 26% on the dirt and 23% in sprints. Jockey Tyler Baze stays on.

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Race 8: #6 Secret Chords (5-2) BEST BET

This filly finished second at Del Mar and was claimed but the claim was voided. She comes back at the same level for trainer Eddie Truman, who is 35% with beaten favorites and 39% third off the layoff.Has early speed and might be long gone under jockey Mario Gutierrez.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Wednesday, Dec. 30

Preview: The track tries a 5-day week after just opening last weekend. Let’s hope it doesn’t bite them down the line. Theirs is a Pick 6 carryover, but the track keeps changing the amount so check it out before playing.

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Race 3: #7 Shakeitupbetty (12-1) 

This filly has done her best running over this track and was claimed last time out by trainer Mark Glatt, who is one of the new owners. Glatt is 26% first off the claim and he gets the red-hot Santiago Gonzalez aboard. They are a 24% combination at Santa Anita.

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Race 5: #1 Carlot Cowboy (3-1)

Not in the habit of picking horses trained by Steve Knapp but this gelding is nearly 50% in the top two on dirt (13-for-27) and Santiago Gonzalez picks up the mount.

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Race 7: #3 Divina Comedia (10-1)

Has run a couple of decent races down the hill, but trainer Simon Callaghan, who is 20% with horses first time in his care, decides to run her around two turns. Joe Talamo keeps the mount on this 4-year-old who has won around two turns on the dirt.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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