Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Oct. 7

Preview: Three stakes races on the card, but the first two don’t look like prices will be coming in. Other than that, a decent card.

FIRST RACE: #3 Cause for Pardon (9-2)
Drops to his lowest level ever in the maiden claiming ranks and gets a good jockey switch to Edwin Maldonado, who is good from the gate so look for a send job.

THIRD RACE: #1 Antioch (6-1)
This filly wasn’t bad last year as a 2-year-old, but obviously suffered an injury. Trainer Richard Mandella doesn’t bring them back until they are ready, hence he has a 26% strike rate with horses off a 180-day plus layoff. Regular barn rider Flavien Prat keeps the mount and the colt is coming out of a key race that has produced four winners from 10 starters.

FIFTH RACE: #6 Bunny Yogurt (10-1)
John Sadler has had this filly stashed at San Luis Rey Downs sans one Santa Anita work. Sadler is 20% with first time starters and I love the sire Scat Daddy on the turf. He gets 15% first time grass. Victor Espinoza is 21% with Sadler.

EIGHTH RACE: #3 Mrs McDougal (4-1)
This is it for this mare and I. Either win today or we’re done. LOL. She came from New York off a long layoff but just hasn’t shown the form she had last year. This is her third off the layoff for the team on Mandella and Prat. I suspect if she doesn’t win it will be off to the breeding shed. This mile distance appears to be her favorite with a 4-3-0-1 record.

NINTH RACE: #3 Dadtughtmewell (10-1)
Takes a drop in class off a long layoff. She is 2-for-3 at this distance. Prat and trainer Dean Pederson are 4-for-4 together the last two years.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on the Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Feb. 20

Nice big Saturday with 11 races and the smallest field is eight horses so there are plenty of chances for prices.

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Race 3: #10 Skiffs Brewmeister (5-1)

This gelding has run 55 career races and never run on the main track. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell ships him up from Gulfstream Park looking to regain his confidence. She is 16% dropping a horse two or more class levels. Jockey Victor Lebron jumps on this closer.

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Race 7: #5 Mister Nofty (turf only) (6-1)

It appears trainer Keith Nation has been looking to go two turns with this son of Scat Daddy all along. Offspring of Scat Daddy with 15% of the time first effort on the grass and Nation is 18% first on turf. He gets leading rider Antonio Gallardo aboard.

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Race 10: #4 Nate the Natural (turf only) (8-1)

This gelding has a pair of third on this turf course and gets a huge jockey upgrade to Daniel Centeno, who has been hot the last three weeks. Trainer Michele Boyce is winning 23% of her races here this winter and has this one spotted well.

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FAIRGROUNDS

Race 11 (Grade II Risen Star Stakes: 1.#4 Bistraya (15-1), 2. #10 Airoforce (5-2), 3. #13 Candy My Boy (15-1), 4. #6 Gun Runner (6-1). LONG SHOT: #7 Its All Relevent (15-1).

It’s time for the 50-point races on the Kentucky Derby trail so a win in any of these races pretty much gets you in the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. We’re going with an upset here as Bistraya ships in off a maiden victory in Southern California. Jockey Edwin Maldonado comes along for the ride. Candy My Boy is interesting but that post is a killer.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

 

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Del Mar, Gulfstream Park West, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Sunday, Nov. 8 (Plus Gulfstream Park West)

FIRST RACE: 1. It Is Living Water, 2. Crucero, 3. China Girl Love. LONG SHOT: Image of Joplin.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Moonie (7-2), 2. Lucy De, 3. Slew’s Charm. LONG SHOT: Heres Geegees Girl.

This filly threw in a clunker last time but she’s back on a surface which she finished second on at this level during the summer. Trainer Edward Freeman is 36% with beaten favorites and he puts his main man Mario Gutierrez up.

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THIRD RACE: 1. Exactamente, 2. Knightwithputnam, 3. Tanager. LONG SHOT: Chalking It Up.
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FOURTH RACE: 1. Great Lou, 2. Wake Up Nick, 3. Mr. Jay D. LONG SHOT: Fooled Again.
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FIFTH RACE: 1. Heavenly Haze, 2. Formally Wild, 3. I’m Zonin. LONG SHOT: Slight Edge.
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SIXTH RACE: 1. #4 ARABIAN LEOPARD (8-1) BEST BET, 2. Tusk, 3. Osceola Pond. LONG SHOT: Papa Gulf.

This 2-year-old cost $575K at auction and has proven a bust on turf so Bob Baffert moves him to the turf. His sire, Scat Daddy, is 16% first time turf and Baffert is 33% with horses making their second appearance going around two turns.

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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Power Jam, 2. Logan’s Moon, 3. Oligarch. LONG SHOT: Golden Atlantic.
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EIGHTH RACE: 1. #6 Yana (8-1), 2. My Monet, 3. Wild in the Saddle. LONG SHOT: Kiss At Midnight.

Trainer Bill Spawr is 35% on the cut back back a route to a sprint. This filly just missed going 7 furlongs earlier this year so the distance shouldn’t be an issue and she had a good work over the track.

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NINTH RACE: 1. Archaeo, 2. Tristan’s Trilogy, 3. Trust Your Gut. LONG SHOT: Silent Lovies.

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Gulfstream Park West  

Race 3: #3 Thinking of Mom (turf only) (6-1)

Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. has two entries in the race and we’ll go with the longer price. This filly is coming out of a key Monmouth Park race that has produced three next out winners. Plesa is 21% with horses coming off a 46-90-day layoff.

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Race 8: #3 Zo Zo Striking (10-1)

Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. wins at 20% rate with first-timer starters. Smart Strike is a good first out sire and speed jockey Paco Lopez jumps on. 

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Saturday’s top choice winners: 2 (Glory $5.40, sixth race; All Run $3.60, seventh)

Saturday’s second choice winners: 0

Saturday’s third choice winners: 1 (Esposito $8.20, first)

Saturday’s long shot winners: 1 (Tough But Nice $13.80, third)

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita selections for Thursday, Oct. 8

FIRST RACE: 1. Dive Down, 2. Doyouknowsomething, 3. Dr. Vincentstein. LONG SHOT: Wild.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Ground Rules, 2. Sammy Mandeville, 3. Solid Wager. LONG SHOT: Infinite Magic.

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THIRD RACE: 1. Always a Chance, 2. Shared Image, 3. Lucky Student. LONG SHOT: Larocco.

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FOURTH RACE: 1. Kitty’s Karma, 2. Appealing Lady, 3. Diamond Debbie. LONG SHOT: Slew’s Charm.

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FIFTH RACE: 1. #6 Popsracer (15-1), 2. I’ll Play My Hand, 3. Woody’s Folly. LONG SHOT: Poythress.

It’s taken five races to finally gets this 3-year-old around two turns. By Scat Daddy out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, he is bred to go two turns. There’s a good work coming into the race and jockey Victor Espinoza takes over.

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SIXTH RACE: 1. Yet Anotherkafwin, 2. Hennythelovepenny, 3. Cadet Roni. LONG SHOT: Zananb.

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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Minster’sadventure, 2. Sadie Clare, 3. Wild Bella. LONG SHOT: West Coast Storm.

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EIGHTH RACE: 1. #8 Be a Lady (6-1) BEST BET, 2. Pulpit Rules, 3. Bella Anatola. LONG SHOT: Juju’s Mojo.

This 2-year-old filly left her race at the starting gate in her debut. Beside, trainer Peter Eurton has better numbers second time out than with first-timers. Jockey Mario Gutierrez keeps the mount on this son of Cindago, which is pure sprint breeding.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

 

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, Sept. 5

FIRST RACE: 1. #4 Ring Collector (8-1), 2. Osceola Pond, 3. Scatastrophe. LONG SHOT: Tequila Joe.

Just did not like the slop in his career debut. Beside, trainer Peter Eurton hardly ever wins first time out. This son of Scat Daddy should relish the turf and the two turns. On top of that, leading jockey Rafael Bejarano jumps aboard and he’s 22% with Eurton.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Two Step Flor, 2. Flexible Ethics, 3. Papaslilprincess. LONG SHOT: I Have a Price.
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THIRD RACE: 1, Majestic Heat, 2. Handfull, 3. Indecise. LONG SHOT: Doodetta.
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FOURTH RACE: 1. It Girl, 2. Katy Drama, 3. Bayonet. LONG SHOT: Warren’s Purrfect.
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FIFTH RACE: 1. Justin Squared, 2. Arabian Leopard, 3. Tristan’s Trilogy. LONG SHOT: Frank Conversation.
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SIXTH RACE: 1. #1 I’MALREADYTHERE (7-2) BEST BET, 2. Hollywood Don, 3. Tiz a Billy. LONG SHOT: Hot Ore.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has done very well over the years with private purchases from Florida and that’s what we have here. This gelding broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park. Hollendorfer is 31% with horses the first time in his care and he puts Flavien Prat aboard. They are 27% together at Del Mar.

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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Rockinatten, 2. New Summit, 3. Rockport Kat. LONG SHOT: Native Treasure.
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EIGHTH RACE: 1, #5 Tiz a Kiss (3-1), 2. Frandontjudge, 3. Spirit of Ten. LONG SHOT: Warren’s Jen Fizz.

This mare finished second over the course and then was transferred to the red-hot Richard Baltas barn. Has a good work last week and jockey Kent Desormeaux takes. He is 21% with Baltas.

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NINTH RACE: 1. #4 Land Over Sea (15-1), 2. Songbird, 3. Pretty N Cool. LONG SHOT: Come to Mischief.

We find it interesting that jockey Mario Gutierrez had his choice of this last out maiden winner and Gomo, the runner-up in the Sorrento Stakes, and he chooses this daughter of Bellamy Road. We know this 2-year-old can get the distance, having won at a mile and is now cutting back. She has a big work over the main track earlier this week which may set her up perfectly.

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10TH RACE: 1. Aotearoa, 2. Surfcup, 3. Texas Ryano. LONG SHOT: Alex Rossi.
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11TH RACE: 1. Formally Wild, 2. Wicker Man, 3. Ain’t Misbehavin. LONG SHOT: Cowtowmary.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park, Horse racing, Los Alamitos

Los Alamitos (plus a few other) opinions for Saturday, July 11

LOS ALAMITOS

Race 3: #3 Caliente Cat (3-1): This gelding loves this track and moves from the nighttime programs to the daytime and a bigger purse. Jockey Gary Boag knows this speedball well and trainer Justin Clark is 44% with horses that won their last race.

Race 7: #8 Watdifrenzdzitmake (6-1):  Will have to navigate from an outside post going long, but trainer Phil D’Amato has been pushing a lot of right buttons this year. D’Amato is 29% third off the layoff, which is what this 3-year-old filly is.

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BELMONT PARK

Race 8: #8 Midnight Trace (12-1): This gelding broke his maiden first out on the turf and finished third on the grass in an allowance race, but then was tried on Polytrack, since he was an Ontario-bred. He returns to the grass today for trainer Graham Motion, who is 18% with shippers, and we love Scat Daddys on the grass.

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Race 10: #10 Puparee (5-1):  This filly broke her maiden in her first time on the grass and comes right back against winners for trainer Dominick Schettino, who is 17% with maiden winners right back. Jockey Jose Ortiz rides right back after making a huge move on the turn.

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GULFSTREAM PARK

Race 8: #4 Hear That Tune (4-1): Throw out this 3-year-old’s last race. He just doesn’t like off tracks. The race one back was sensational while just missing the win. Trainer Stanley Gold is 29% with beaten favorites and he is 3-for-8 with jockey Eddie Castro over the last 60 days.

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Race 9: #11 Proper Empire (6-1): This 6-year-old moves up in class, but trainer Luis Ramirez is 48% with horses second off the layoff and 29% when a horse is second time in his care. Apprentice Harry Hernandez must work a trip from the outside but look for him to close down the lane.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Belmont Park, Gulfstream Park, Horse racing, Los Alamitos

Los Alamitos (plus a few others) opinions for Saturday, July 4

Race 1: #6 Surfside Tiara (5-2)

Interesting jockey dynamic here as Martin Garcia rides No. 1 for trainer Bob Baffert, yet he doesn’t ride Baffert’s horse in this race. Instead, he jumps on this first-timer for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (28% with firsters). The sire Scat Daddy is 27% with firsters.

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Race 9: #6 Lady Dash (12-1)

This filly broke her maiden over this track last year and should be plenty fit for trainer Rafael DeLeon while running in a route race last time. Hoping she is a horse for the course.

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BELMONT PARK

Race 8: #7 Postulation (10-1)

Trainer Dermot Weld sends this 3-year-old over from Ireland for Juddmonte Farms. Weld brings his own jockey in PJ Smullen.

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Race 10: #10 Outstanding (6-1)

Sticking with another European as trainer Aiden O’Brien sends this daughter of Galileo over from Ireland. She has won two straight and jockey C O’Donoghue knows her from her last victory.

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GULFSTREAM PARK

Race 4: #9 Live in Joy (4-1)

Trainer Efren Loza Jr. is doing his usual good job and winning at a high percentage. He is 35% with horses off a 46-90-day layoff and red-hot apprentice Tyler Gaffalione has the ride here.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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