Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, March 17

Race 2 – SA
#6 Chuchotti (2-1) ****
Our Eyes: In case you haven’t figured out, I’m a big believer in the key race theory and this filly is coming out of a Del Mar race that has produced four winners from five starters. That’s enough for a single in all wagers for me.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win, 10 units to place.

Race 5 – SA
#7 Lauren’s Ladd (9-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Jockey Tyler Baze was on fire Thursday and hoping he stays hot here. This colt broke his maiden going down the hill and he finished second last time over a “good” surface. Maybe firm ground will suit him better. Trainer Ron Ellis is 33$ second off the claim.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#3 Irish Dame (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly has been running on the turf but trainer Vann Belvoir gives that up and goes to the dirt as he drops her into a maiden claimer for the first time. He gets leading rider Falvien Prat and they are 24% together.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Wednesday, Aug. 3

Preview: So-so card. Some jockeys off to slow starts are Joe Talamo 2-for- 45, Martin Garcia 2-36, Martin Pedroza 2-35 and Edwin Maldonado 1-36. Maldonado has reportedly changed agents.

Race 1: 1. #3 Senza Fina (8-1), 2. Flexible Ethics, 3. L.A. Magic. LONG SHOT: Smil’n From Above.
Trainer Mark Glatt, who is off to a fast start, held a fire sale on this mare last time and she finished second. Glatt is 24% with beaten favorites and in a good sign, he moves her up in class. Glatt is 22% with jockey Fernando Perez.

Race 2: 1. Gloryzapper, 3. Minster’sadventure. LONG SHOT: Meta Mu.

Race 3: 1. Huevos Rancheros, 3. Zen Deputy. LONG SHOT: Grass and Cactus.

Race 4: 1. Pay or Play, 2. Stormy Endeavor, 3. Start to Finish. LONG SHOT: Cougar Creek.

Race 5: 1. #6 Souper Knight (5-1), 2. Schillairess, 3. Gutsy Ruler. LONG SHOT: Well Maybe.
Trainer Gary Stute doesn’t start many but he claimed this gelding last time and Stute is 44% first off the claim. Jockey Victor Espinoza jumps on.

Race 6: 1. #3 Nusret (6-1) BEST BET, 2. Ain’t Misbehavin, 3. Matriculate. LONG SHOT: Storm Comin Thru.
Trainer Ron Ellis doesn’t claim very often so when he does you have to take notice. Ellis is 22% first off the claim and he stretches this gelding out off many sprints.

Race 7: 1. Milton Freewater, 2. Green With Eddie, 3. California Diamond. LONG SHOT: Exotic Ghost.

Race 8: 1. Magik Pepper, 2. Silent Movies, 3. Gabo’s Macondo. LONG SHOT: Latest Craze.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, June 26

Preview: Gold Cup Day and we like the idea of running the race as the last event on the card. Rafael Bejarano went 2-for-2 on Thursday to create some space in the jockey’s race and he could pick up some more today as Flavien Prat is suspended and can only ride in the Gold Cup. Bad day on Friday as favorites won everything and my favorites ran up the track

Race 3: #4 Concorso (9-2): Trainer Dan Hendricks is 2-for-8 at the meet. This gelding showed good speed in breaking his maiden at Los Alamitos but he also has the Brisnet top Late Pace Rating. Hendricks is 21% with horses coming off a 46 to 90-day layoff and jockey Drayden Van Dyke gets aboard.

Race 4: #7 Chasing Aces (6-1): Trainer Peter Miller scored Thursday with a maiden training at San Luis Rey Downs and that’s what we have here in this colt sired by Flatter, an 11% first out sire. Miller is 17% first time out and he’s 26% with jockey Fernando Perez.

Race 6: #8 Family Code (3-1): This gelding pressed the pace in his last win and has two wins over this track. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is 48% when he drops a horse off a win.

Race 7: #5 Tiz No Bluff (6-1): This colt is making his second career start after an even effort in his first try around two turns. He should improve off that effort for trainer Ron Ellis, who is 24% with horses off a 61 to 180-day layoff and 20% on the dirt.

Race 8: #2 Kobe’s Back (5-2): Absolutely love this horse in this spot going 7 furlongs. He also loves this track with a 6-3-2-0 record over the oval. There is plenty of speed in here and he has Brisnt’s top Class and Late Pace Ratings.

Race 9: #1 Bal a Bali (9-2): This horse has run all 21 lifetime efforts on the grass so why does Richard Mandella run him here? Because he’s a Hall of Fame trainer. The 6-year-old horse from Brazil has been tearing it up in the mornings in workouts on the dirt and there are no world beaters in this race so why not take a shot? Mandella is 26% going from turf to dirt and 22% with beaten favorites. This horses has been facing tough ones on the grass so the class shouldn’t be a problem and jockey Flavien Prat stays aboard.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, May 20

Preview: More horses in the late Pick Four than early. The turf rails at 30 feet, which might favor speed. A few jockeys have gotten off to a slow start at the meet: Agapito Delgadillo is 0-for-15 followed by Stewart Elliott is 1-for-24 and Drayden Van Dyke is 1-for-16.

Race 1 – SA
#7 Western Warrior (4-1): The first year sire Iqbaal is 1-for-4 with debuting maidens and looking to make a name for himself. Trainer Blade Heap is 15% first-timers and 3 for his last 10 in the MSW ranks. He is the co-breeders on this colt and gets good gate jockey Martin Pedroza.

Race 3 – SA
#2 Trifecta (9-2) (turf only): This gelding has been running in longer races and cuts back to a mile so he should be plenty fit and maybe that’s why trainer Ron Ellis claimed him. The 4-year-old is 7-2-2-0 at this distance and Ellis is 23% first off the claim.

Race 5 – SA
#2 Yes Yes Yes (5-1)(turf only): Trainer Peter Eurton gets the gelding back down the hill where he is 3-1-0-2 and the 5-year-old has had a couple of good works coming into this race. Eurton is 26% with horses off a 61-180-day layoff and jockey Rafael Bejarano jumps on (28% with Eurton.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, May 19

Preview: Just a so-so weekday. During the first two weeks of the meet, jockey Edwin Maldonado has been hot, winning 10 of 38 races. Rafael Bejarano is right behind him with 9-of-36.

Race 1 – SA
#3 My California (10-1): This appears to be the sire Calimonco’s first starter and owners/breeders like to get off to a fast start with new sires. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is 25% with first-time starters and 23% with 2-year-olds.

Race 5 – SA
#8 City of Vengeance (4-1): Trainer Ron Ellis claimed this gelding and wanted to get him on the downhill course but was thwarted due do the weather. Ellis is 40% second off the claim and has a second down the hill. Jockey Tyler Baze, 27% with Ellis at Santa Anita, takes the mount.

Race 8 – SA
#1 Papa Joey (4-1): This gelding showed big improvement when placed on the turf for the first time by trainer Phil D’Amato, who is 38% with jockey Drayden Van Dyke.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Feb. 27

Preview: Lots of sprint races on the card. In looking at some jockey stats, some riders to avoid on the dirt are Tiago Pereira (1-44), Gonzalo Nicholas (1-32), Iggy Puglisi (0-17) and on the grass Joe Talamo (1-51), Mike Smith (1-28) and Victor Espinoza (1-24).

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Race 7: #7 Tannersmymuscle (8-1) 

As we mentioned jockey Joe Talamo is having trouble on the turf but on the dirt he has 16 victories. This gelding is making his second start off the layoff and trainer Ron Ellis is 36% second off the claim. The 6-year-old also has the best Brisnet Late Pace Rating.

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Race 9: #5 Proud ‘n’ Ready (turf only) (8-1) 

This filly makes her second start down the hill and while she showed speed last time she also had the best Brisnet Late Pace Rating. Trainer Peter Eurton is 25% second time grass and he’s a good combination with jockey Mario Gutierrez.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Gulfstream Park West, Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita early opinions for Sunday, Oct. 18

Race 4: #3 Ferocious (5-1)

Our Eyes: Trainer Ron Ellis doesn’t start many on the grass but when he does they usually do well which explains is 29% record with horses second time on the turf. Ellis is 23% off a long layoff of 180 days or more and he’s 26% with jockey Tyler Baze.

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Race 9: #9 Perdona (8-1)

This filly has improved each time out and now comes off a 2-month layoff and trainer Peter Eurton is 23% off this type of layoff. She likes to show speed and jockey Mario Gutierrez, who won five races on Friday, should be able to get over and he’s 20% at Santa Anita with Eurton.

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Gulfstream Park West

Race 4: #6 Claiming Victory (3-1)

This mare drops off a second-place finish in a minor stakes event across town. This is her second start with trainer Marcus Vitali, who is 25% with this move. Barn rider Mattew Rispoli (28%) stays aboard.

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Race 9: #7 Pax Orbis (10-1)

Our Eyes: It isn’t often you see jockey Tyler Gaffalione and trainer Ralph Nicks (27% together) at this price on the morning-line. This 4-year-old comes out of key race that has produced three next out winners. The gelding likes to stay close up.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Sunday, Sept. 6

FIRST RACE: 1. #3 SEND ME A SIGN (8-1) best bet, 2. Audra, 3 Lily Ka. LONG SHOT: Untouchable U.

This 3-year-old comes out of the most productive key race of the meet as five horses have come back to win their next race. The daughter of Include finished 10th of 12 but encountered when she was bumped at the 3/16th-pole. Jockey Mike Smith sees fit to stick for trainer Ron Ellis and so will we.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Black N Beauty, 2. American Blend, 3. Accelerant. LONG SHOT: The Mad Hungarian.

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THIRD RACE: 1. Baruta, 2. Tribal Gal, 3. Uzziel. LONG SHOT: Ben’s Duchess

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FOURTH RACE: 1. Ipray, 2. L X Sunrise, 3. Belle Evon. LONG SHOT: Watdifrenzdzitmake.

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FIFTH RACE: 1. #4 Cowboy (12-1), 2. Mixio, 3. Second Summer. LONG SHOT: Stardom Found.

The Papa Clem colt turned in an improved effort when moved to the grass and only figures to get better in his third race. Jockey Mario Gutierrez rode him in his debut for the underrated Bobby Wayne Grayson so he knows what this 3-year-old is all about.

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SIXTH RACE: 1. Devoted One, 2. Lucky Folie, 3. Lemon Drop Sis. LONG SHOT: Mokat.

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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Prospect Park, 2. Soul Driver, 3. Om. LONG SHOT: Crittenden.

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EIGHTH RACE: 1. Yahoo Yahoe, 2. Toledo Eddie, 3. Just Kidding. LONG SHOT: Henry’s Holiday.

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NINTH RACE: 1. She’s Not Here, 2. Queen of The Sand, 3. Aleix Tangier. LONG SHOT: Customer Base.

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10TH RACE: 1. Saint Dermot, 2. Roman Tizzy, 3. Tulira Castle. LONG SHOT: Celebrity Status.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, Aug. 15

FIRST RACE: 1. BELLAMY CONCERTO, 2. Carson City Five, 3. Midnight Man. LONG SHOT: Attack.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Freethinker, 2. Hiking, 3. Show Stealer. LONG SHOT: Tiz a Kiss.
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THIRD RACE: 1, Mt Veeder, 2. Beaumarchais, 3. American League. LONG SHOT: Quality Line.
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FOURTH RACE: 1. #6 Carlot Cowboy (6-1), 2. All Squared Away, 3. Broadway Nika. LONG SHOT: The Mad Hungarian.

Just throw this gelding’s last race as he has never won a wet track and that’s what he had last time in addition to be first off the layoff. The 5-year-old has won 6-of-22 on a fast dirt track and jockey Tiago Pereira rides back for trainer Bill Spawr.

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FIFTH RACE: 1. Dr. Vincentstein, 2. Public Policy, 3. Justonemorthing. LONG SHOT: Rebel Rebel.
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SIXTH RACE: 1. Toowindytohaulrox, 2. Weewinnin, 3. Jules Journey. LONG SHOT: Surfcup.
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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Forthenineteen, 2. Plane Lucky, 3. Patriotic Diamond. LONG SHOT: Miles Sister.
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EIGHTH RACE: 1. #8 Sunset Glow (best bet), 2. Rattataptap, 3. Prize Exhibit. LONG SHOT: Zipessa.

Race 8: #8 Sunset Glow (3-1) BEST BET

Just don’t think this 3-year-old filly liked the softened turf last time. Think she wants it firm and no rain is in the forecast. Trainer Wesley Ward is 27% second off the layoff and jockey Gary Stevens stays aboard.

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NINTH RACE: 1. #5 Allidoisdreamofyou (8-1), 2. Unblunted, 3. London Legacy. LONG SHOT: Whine for Wine.

This 3-year-old didn’t like the going last race at Churchill Downs and ships out here looking to cash. Trainer Ron Ellis is 36% first time with horses and this one had a good work over the track this week. Look for Fernando Perez to put this one in the race early.

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10TH RACE: 1. Sweet Promises, 2. Artisticdifference, 3. Sweetthancandy. LONG SHOT: Nashoba’s Candy.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Friday’s top choice winners: 1 (Wanstead Gardens $14.80, seventh)

Friday’s second choice winners: 2 (Brimstoned $8.20, second’ Ticaboo $7, fifth)

Friday’s third choice winners: 0

Friday’s long shot winners: 2 (Curlin’s Fox $6.20, third; Carlos Dangerous $6.40, fourth)

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Wednesday, Aug. 5

FIRST RACE: 1. #7 Okaad (15-1), 2. Pat the Bear, 3. Bobby Z Man. LONG SHOT: Embellishing Bob.

This gelding broke his maiden going this distance in wire-to-wire fashion and we look for jockey Iggy Puglisi to try similar tactics. Trainer Paul Aguirre is 41% with horses off a 90-day plus layoff.

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SECOND RACE: 1. Atascaderan, 2. Memphis, 3. North Pacific. LONG SHOT: Hojas.
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THIRD RACE: 1. #1 BOOK THIRTY FOUR (3-1) best bet, 2. Lassie’s Reward, 3. Market Notes. LONG SHOT: Indian Assault.

Trainer Doug O’Neill was on fire last week and he hopes to continue the roll in the new week. This 3-year-old drops into a claimer against winners for the first time and Rafael Bejarano, one of the leading jockeys, jumps on and he is 20% with O’Neill.

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FOURTH RACE: 1. Autumn Flower, 2. Katy Drama, 3. Ya Ya Girl. LONG SHOT: Betterlethergo.
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FIFTH RACE: 1. I’ll Show Me, 2. Lily Pod, 3. Audra. LONG SHOT: Microburst.
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SIXTH RACE: 1. Viviendo El Sueno, 2. Mrazek, 3. Getoffmyback. LONG SHOT: Swiss Minister.
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SEVENTH RACE: 1. #1 Shapely (15-1), 2. Yana, 3. Tara’s Tango. LONG SHOT: Savannah Sky.

This is a pretty good price on a good trainer (Ron Ellis). He is 32% turf to dirt and 33% third off the layoff. On top of that he is 35% with jockey Drayden Van Dyke.

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EIGHTH RACE: 1. Divine Tale, 2. Avo, 3. Sparkling Peg. LONG SHOT: Take It Easyplease.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Sunday’s top choice winners: 2 (Frandontjudge $10.80, second race; Gimme Da Lute $2.80, fifth)

Sunday’s second choice winners: 0

Sunday’s third choice winners: 3 (London Legacy $5.60, third; Gunslinger $6.40, fourth; Flat Gone $5, ninth)

Sunday’s long shot winners: 1 (Blameitonthelaw $8, seventh)

 

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