Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Oct. 6

Preview: Plenty of big prices on Thursday means a huge Pick 6 carryover into the program Friday. Evin Roman won times, two of them at big prices, and trainer Peter Miller had a couple of nice scores so his barn might be worth watching because when it gets hot, it gets HOT.

FIRST RACE: #2 Forthenineteen (8-1)
This filly has a 7-1-1-1 record over this track. Trainer Genaro Vallejo is 3-for-5 on the year. I try to look for prices in the these lower priced claiming races. If the favorite wins, I lose. It’s that simple.

THIRD RACE: #5 Christy Jackson (4-1)
Blinkers go on and trainer Kenny Black drops her to the bottom of the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. Tyler Baze has ridden her the last three times and needs to get a better start out of the gate.

FIFTH RACE: #1 Candy Boss (8-1)
This filly has had two sprint preps and goes long for the first time, a move trainer John Sadler is 23% with. She will likely show speed from the inside, the key will be for jockey Joe Talamo to ration that speed going around two turns.

EIGHTH RACE: #1 Ava Forty Seven (12-1)
It’s possible this is a prep race for going two turns for trainer Phil D’Amato, but he is 22% off a layoff of this length, 22% going from route to sprint and 20% on the turf. He puts Jamie Theriot aboard and they are 21% together, but an even better 29% at Santa Anita. Good works at San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall. This is also the “other” D’Amato so be suggest an exacta box of Ava and #3 Be Mine (5-2).

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Advertisements
Standard
Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Saturday, Aug. 5

Preview: Boy, is the Peter Miller barn cold or what? He’s is a little tough to bet right now as he hasn’t won a race since the first week of the meet. On top of that he has lost with 12 straight betting favorites. Ouch. Another person to watch is apprentice Evin Roman. Yes, he is tearing it up, but he’s only won twice on the grass in the first 13 days of the meet. Turf riding is an art and he still has a lot of learning to do. Until I see some positive signs, I’m staying away from him, especially in grass route races.

FIRST RACE: 1. Soul Sound, 2. Anchor Baby, 3. Privvy. LONG SHOT: I’m Sassy

SECOND RACE: 1. Roman Tizzy, 2. Private Prospect, 3. So Elite. LONG SHOT: Tisdale.

THIRD RACE: 1. WOOD MACHINE (best bet), 2. Chris and Dave, 3. Unusual Meeting. LONG SHOT: South Texas Lingo.
Trainer Mike Chambers cut his teeth in the Pacific Northwest and in Arizona. Jockey Gary Stevens got his start in Pacific Northwest, too. In today’s third race, Stevens rides Wood Machine (7-2) for Chambers. They scored at nearly 10-1 at Santa Anita with this gelding. Last time, the 5-year-old started from the packing lot (No. 10 of 11 horses). He draws inside here and has the best last win in terms of company lines (a $32,000 claimer). He drops in class and I think Stevens will have him rolling down the stretch.

For the rest of my selections, go to:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-nahill-delmar-handicapping-saturday-aug8-story.html

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on the Twitter

Standard
Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Thursday, July 20

PREVIEW: Day 2 of the meet. Rafael Bejarano won four times and Flavien Prat won three times on opening day and trainer Vladimir Cerin took the first two races of the meet so watch out his barn appears ready. On the opposite end, trainer Peter Miller went 0-for-10 on opening day after extolling his virtues first out the meet. Ouch.

FIRST RACE: 1. #2 Frac Candy, 2. #4 Oh Newman, 3. #6 Finallygotabentley. LONG SHOT: #5 Royal F J.

SECOND RACE: 1. #6 Sassy Ashley, 2. #4 Ocean Dream, 3. #5 Yavrig. LONG SHOT: #3 Honor Maker.

THIRD RACE: 1. #10 Battleground State, 2. #5 Jabber Now, 3. #6 Easy Song. LONG SHOT: #11 Halo Ahead.

FOURTH RACE: 1. #5 CLIFTON BEACH (BEST BET), 2. #8 Shadow Op, 3. #1 Orejas. LONG SHOT: #7 Ruff House.
Clifton Beach has the top Brisnet Prime and Class ratings which means the 5-2 morning-line won’t be close look for 8-5 or less. This colt has speed and shorten ups for John Sadler.

FIFTH RACE: 1. #9 Buymeabond, 2. #3 Hero Ten All, 3. #6 Awesome Return. LONG SHOT: #2 Moving.

SIXTH RACE: 1. #5 Hold That Smile, 2. #8 Whatyoucuswhatuget, 3. #6 Sharona Sunset. LONG SHOT; #2 Miss Pretty.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. #1 Lajatico, 2. #4 Everqueen, 3. #6 Tapped. LONG SHOT: #9 Snow Cloud.
Trainer Doug O’Neill isn’t know for his prowess on the turf, but he seems to do well in Del Mar turf sprints so we are with his horses in the first two slots. Long shot Snow Cloud is from the Jim Cassidy barn and he did very well last year going short on the grass, but why no Jamie Theriot?

EIGHTH RACE: 1. #6 Acharnement, 2. #4 Factorize, 3. #1 Midnight Summer. LONG SHOT: #10 Ginger Street.
It isn’t often that you jockey Gary Stevens stick around for the last race and a maiden claimer at that. Trainer Eddie Truman is 29% with horses the first time they drop into a maiden claimer for the first time. Trainer Peter Miller has both the second and third horses and is live whenever he runs first time at the meet.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Standard
Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Wednesday, July 19 (Opening day) Updated

PREVIEW: Del Mar is finally back and it’s Christmas in July for many people. There is nothing like opening day. On the track, look for Peter Miller to come out swinging with 10 horses set to run in the first card. I set the over/under at 2 1/2 wins Wednesday. Don’t forget red hot apprentice Evin Roman will be riding for the first time at the seaside oval and there will be a learning curve, especially on the turf. It will be fun to watch his development.

FIRST RACE: 1. #5 Getoffmyback, 2. #6 Papa Royale, 3. #4 Our Nation. LONG SHOT: #1 Post Rock.

I look for Miller to get off to fast start and it begins here as Roman rides this gelding. Miller is 26% with beaten favorites and I look for this one to be on the engine from the start.

SECOND RACE: 1. #1 PEDRO CERRANO (BEST BET), 2. #3 Where Y’at Joe Joe, 3. #6 Bronzino. LONG SHOT: #4 Holdthismiss.

It’s Miller time again. This gelding is a perfect 2-for-2 over the track.

THIRD RACE: 1. #2 Cheekaboomboom, 2. #6 Alsatian, 3. #3 Popular Kid. LONG SHOT: #1 Ibon.

FOURTH RACE: 1. #6 Literary Critic, 2. #3 Pretty Owl, 3. #8 Classy Tune. LONG SHOT: #2 Slim Fit.

FIFTH RACE: 1. #9 Mapit, 2. #8 Just a Smidge, 3. #3 Varanasi. LONG SHOT: #5 My Princess Taylor.

SIXTH RACE: 1. #3 Family Meeting, 2. #2 Nodiac, 3. #7 Moonless Sky. LONG SHOT: #1 Bert’s Melody.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. #9 Giant Expectations, 2. #10 Magical Mystery, 3. #1 Miner’s Light. LONG SHOT: #3 Tell Me a Story.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. #2 Bird Is the Word, 2. #4 Bowies Hero, 3. #1 Arms Runner. LONG SHOT: #9 Placido.

NINTH RACE: 1. #3 Helen’s Tiger, 2. #4 Spiced Perfection, 3. #6 Smiling Tigress. LONG SHOT: #9 Steak of Luck.

10TH RACE: 1. #3 Preacher Roe, 2. #5 Que Chistoso, 3. #6 Belisarius. LONG SHOT: #1 Dream Police.

More picks later. Wanna look at works in maiden races.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Standard
Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, Feb. 9

Preview: I’ll be honest, the first time through the races I didn’t look at the turf races because with rain on Tuesday I didn’t think they would run on it today, but with warmer weather and rain 100% in the forecast for Friday, I think they will run on it. Also in the seventh race, two horses popped up from one of the biggest key races of the year at Del Mar.

Race 1 – SA
#1 Informant (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: This will be a tough race to beat the favorites, but this filly ran her best race going around two turns at Del Mar and she finally returns to two turns today for trainer Eddie Truman.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 2 – SA
#7 Pearly de Vere (5-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Throw out that last race in the mud. Trainer Peter Miller claimed this mare to run down the hill, where she has three wins. Miller and jockey Kent Desormeaux have been hot. Might be a single in the Pick 5 and Pick 4.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#3 Nuke Laloosh (5-2) ****
Our Eyes: Sorry, not real original here, but everything Miller sends out is live these days. This gelding has been away since November but it’s Miller and Desormeaux again.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – SA
#8 Oscar Dominguez (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
#1 Landwade Lad (8-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: You never see me “dutch” a race but I’m going to here. These two horses are coming out of a Dec. 2 Del Mar race that has produced four winners from five starters, including Rye ($8) on Sunday. Oscar finished third in that race, beating the fifth place Lad by less than 2 lengths. I would bet both to win and place plus play an exacta box. If the odds get really high on one of them, put an extra bet on that one.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win and 6 units to place. EXBX 8-1.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Standard
Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Feb. 4

Preview: Some rain on Friday, but only one race was taken off the turf which is a good sign for today’s card. At the start of the race week, Jerry Hollendorfer, Peter Miller and Richard Baltas led the way on the dirt with eight wins each. Doug O’Neill was right behind with seven winners. On the other end, Steven Knapp was 0-for-10 followed by Mike Harrington (1-18) and Sal Gonzalez (1-14), all of whom were having trouble winning races.

Race 4: #9 Amer Sista (6-1): Took money in her debut, but was off slow and then in right. Trainer Phil D’Amato puts blinkers on (22% move) and top turf rider Flavien Prat stays on and he’s 24% with D’Amato.

Race 6: #8 Fabozzi (6-1): This gelding is 3-2-0-1 at the distance. The 4-year-old is moving up in class but trainer Mark Glatt is 30% with horses that won their last race and that man Prat rides again on the turf. Prat is 27% with Glatt.

Race 8: #5 Mor Spirit (3-1): Pure and simple that try in the Malibu was a prep for this race by trainer Bob Baffert. This 4-year-old tries older horses for the first time, but Baffert is 27% going sprint to route and jockey Mike Smith stays aboard.

Race 9: #8 Perfectly Majestic (10-1): This gelding has beaten some of these before and has a record of 18-4-5-6 on the grass. Kent Desormeaux gets back on and he has had success with this 5-year-old in the past.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Standard
Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Feb. 3

Preview: To be honest I’m not sure what to do with this card because rain has been forecast for much of the week, but the percentage has gone down. It probably means there is 100% of rain and it will wash the turf races off the grass.

Race 1 – SA
#2 Rangi (7-2) (TURF ONLY) ****
Our Eyes: The Peter Miller barn has been on fire for the last week. This gelding has speed and takes a drop in class. He has won over the downhill before and Rafael Bejarano stays aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 3 – SA
#1 Yellow Bonnett (5-2) ****
Our Eyes: Been following this filly for a while and she finally gets to run around two turns for the first time, which she is bred to do. Trainer Mark Glatt is 24% second off the layoff and he’s 27% with Flavien Prat.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#7 Sequentially (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding faced tougher in his debut at Del Mar and now takes a class drop. Glatt is 31% when dropping a horse two or more classes. He is also 21% with jockey Norberto Arroyo Jr..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Standard