Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Thursday, July 19

Preview: Trainers Doug O’Neill and Jerry Hollendorfer, who were mediocre in 2017, dominated on opening day, winning the first seven races between them. Give their horses an extra look, especially O’Neill, who gets hot and then cools off.

Trainers to watch
PHIL D’AMATO: Tied for the Del Mar training title last summer with 18 wins and his stable has only gotten stronger since then. He is a monster on the turf with 12 wins and 11 seconds from 66 starters. This summer look for improved numbers on the dirt and with younger horses.

RICHARD BALTAS: He tied D’Amato for the crown a year ago. Surprisingly, he beat D’Amato on the grass, leading all trainer with 13 winners on the green. One area of weakness is first-time starters so stay away from them.

PETER MILLER: Last summer wasn’t the best for the Carlsbad resident who annually starts a ton of horses at the seaside oval. He had more than twice has many seconds and thirds (24 and 16) as wins (15). No doubt he wants to turn those numbers around. Don’t be afraid of horses showing San Luis Rey Downs works because he has a portion of his stable there. Miller was second in dirt wins and victories by 2-year-olds. He does a lot of damage with claimers and maiden claimers, but you often don’t get a square price.

MARK GLATT: He had a really good summer under the radar last year, finishing tied for third in the standings with Miller (15 wins) from far less starters (68). He also is sneaky on the grass with eight wins from 37 starts. Betting on all of Glatt’s starters would have produced a flat-bet profit, according to Jim Mazur’s The Del Mar Handicapper 2018.

DOUG O’NEILL: It will be a race to see who starts more horses this meet: Miller or O’Neill. The O’Neill barn gets a lot of horses from J. Paul Reddam and a lot sired by Square Eddie so watch for that combination. O’Neill was tied for third in dirt wins (nine) and grass can be a weakness. However, look at turf sprints because in 2016 O’Neill did well in that category.

OTHERS: Bob Baffert has his second Triple Crown winner in four years but like American Pharoah, Justify won’t run at Del Mar. Baffert led all trainers with 12 dirt wins, with half of them coming from 2-year-olds. He is also usually strong in the sprint and handicap divisions. The best betting option is “the other Baffert.” When he has two horses in the same race, bet the one with the higher odds plus bet an exacta box of his two horses. … Jerry Hollendorfer had just five winners a year ago but he got hot during Santa Anita and might be back to his old self. Watch out for his 2-year-olds, especially the fillies, one of which (Brill) is running on opening day. … Michael McCarthy, the former Todd Pletcher assistant, is starting to get better stock after finishing last summer for third in dirt wins (nine). According to Mazur’s book, McCarthy produced a huge $73 flat-bet profit. … Simon Callaghan is another younger trainer to watch after he had seven 2-year-old winners in 2017. … Steve Miyadi is also good with 2-year-olds (four wins) and first-time starters (three of 11). … Jim Cassidy, the life-long New York Yankees fan, is 7-for-13 in turf sprints the last three years with a profit of $137, according Mazur’s book. … Tom Proctor, who trains mainly for Glen Hill Farm, is a whiz on the turf and he went 6-for-15 at 2017 meet for a flat-bet profit, but don’t expect any large prices because his horses get bet.

FIRST RACE: 1. Watch Me Burn, 2. Jellybeankristine, 3. No Thanks Erik. LONG SHOT: Lakerzwin.

SECOND RACE: 1. Gutsy Effort, 2. Welldidyougetit, 3. Latitude. LONG SHOT: June Two Four.

THIRD RACE: 1. PASTIME (best bet), 2. G Q Covergirl, 3. Painting Corners. LONG SHOT: Invested Prospect.
Let me just say this up front there is no way we are getting the 12-1 morning line on No. 8 Pastime in today’s third race. Trainer Victoria Oliver brings a small string to Del Mar almost every year from Kentucky and always seem to win at a good price, but the word is already out on social media. That being said Oliver is 4-for-11 at Del Mar with horses off a 31- to 60-day layoff like this filly and the average winning price is $20, according to Jim Mazur’s The Del Mar Handicapper 2018.

FOURTH RACE: 1. Robin’s Love, 2. Cylinders, 3. Lil Bit Dangerous. LONG SHOT: Go Smiley Go.

FIFTH RACE: 1. Memorable Election, 2. Rockaway, 3. Ivy Mike. LONG SHOT: Master Ruler.

SIXTH RACE: 1. Magic Musketier, 2. Andesh, 3. Inscom. LONG SHOT: Soltero.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. Secret Spice, 2. Moonshine Memories, 3. Show It N Moe It. LONG SHOT: Treasuring.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. Majorie E, 2. Venue, 3. Oh Pretty Woman. LONG SHOT: Unusual Gold.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS

Top choice winners: 2 (Shivermetimbers $4.60, sixth race; Brill $3.40, seventh)

Second choice winners: 1 (Super Duper Cooper $6.40, ninth)

Third choice winners: 3 (Eighty Three $10.60, third; Dichotomy $5.40, fourth; Ann Arbor Eddie $20, fifth)

Long shot winners: 1 (Jimmy Chila $7, second)

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Oct. 6

Preview: Plenty of big prices on Thursday means a huge Pick 6 carryover into the program Friday. Evin Roman won times, two of them at big prices, and trainer Peter Miller had a couple of nice scores so his barn might be worth watching because when it gets hot, it gets HOT.

FIRST RACE: #2 Forthenineteen (8-1)
This filly has a 7-1-1-1 record over this track. Trainer Genaro Vallejo is 3-for-5 on the year. I try to look for prices in the these lower priced claiming races. If the favorite wins, I lose. It’s that simple.

THIRD RACE: #5 Christy Jackson (4-1)
Blinkers go on and trainer Kenny Black drops her to the bottom of the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. Tyler Baze has ridden her the last three times and needs to get a better start out of the gate.

FIFTH RACE: #1 Candy Boss (8-1)
This filly has had two sprint preps and goes long for the first time, a move trainer John Sadler is 23% with. She will likely show speed from the inside, the key will be for jockey Joe Talamo to ration that speed going around two turns.

EIGHTH RACE: #1 Ava Forty Seven (12-1)
It’s possible this is a prep race for going two turns for trainer Phil D’Amato, but he is 22% off a layoff of this length, 22% going from route to sprint and 20% on the turf. He puts Jamie Theriot aboard and they are 21% together, but an even better 29% at Santa Anita. Good works at San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall. This is also the “other” D’Amato so be suggest an exacta box of Ava and #3 Be Mine (5-2).

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Saturday, Aug. 5

Preview: Boy, is the Peter Miller barn cold or what? He’s is a little tough to bet right now as he hasn’t won a race since the first week of the meet. On top of that he has lost with 12 straight betting favorites. Ouch. Another person to watch is apprentice Evin Roman. Yes, he is tearing it up, but he’s only won twice on the grass in the first 13 days of the meet. Turf riding is an art and he still has a lot of learning to do. Until I see some positive signs, I’m staying away from him, especially in grass route races.

FIRST RACE: 1. Soul Sound, 2. Anchor Baby, 3. Privvy. LONG SHOT: I’m Sassy

SECOND RACE: 1. Roman Tizzy, 2. Private Prospect, 3. So Elite. LONG SHOT: Tisdale.

THIRD RACE: 1. WOOD MACHINE (best bet), 2. Chris and Dave, 3. Unusual Meeting. LONG SHOT: South Texas Lingo.
Trainer Mike Chambers cut his teeth in the Pacific Northwest and in Arizona. Jockey Gary Stevens got his start in Pacific Northwest, too. In today’s third race, Stevens rides Wood Machine (7-2) for Chambers. They scored at nearly 10-1 at Santa Anita with this gelding. Last time, the 5-year-old started from the packing lot (No. 10 of 11 horses). He draws inside here and has the best last win in terms of company lines (a $32,000 claimer). He drops in class and I think Stevens will have him rolling down the stretch.

For the rest of my selections, go to:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-nahill-delmar-handicapping-saturday-aug8-story.html

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on the Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Thursday, July 20

PREVIEW: Day 2 of the meet. Rafael Bejarano won four times and Flavien Prat won three times on opening day and trainer Vladimir Cerin took the first two races of the meet so watch out his barn appears ready. On the opposite end, trainer Peter Miller went 0-for-10 on opening day after extolling his virtues first out the meet. Ouch.

FIRST RACE: 1. #2 Frac Candy, 2. #4 Oh Newman, 3. #6 Finallygotabentley. LONG SHOT: #5 Royal F J.

SECOND RACE: 1. #6 Sassy Ashley, 2. #4 Ocean Dream, 3. #5 Yavrig. LONG SHOT: #3 Honor Maker.

THIRD RACE: 1. #10 Battleground State, 2. #5 Jabber Now, 3. #6 Easy Song. LONG SHOT: #11 Halo Ahead.

FOURTH RACE: 1. #5 CLIFTON BEACH (BEST BET), 2. #8 Shadow Op, 3. #1 Orejas. LONG SHOT: #7 Ruff House.
Clifton Beach has the top Brisnet Prime and Class ratings which means the 5-2 morning-line won’t be close look for 8-5 or less. This colt has speed and shorten ups for John Sadler.

FIFTH RACE: 1. #9 Buymeabond, 2. #3 Hero Ten All, 3. #6 Awesome Return. LONG SHOT: #2 Moving.

SIXTH RACE: 1. #5 Hold That Smile, 2. #8 Whatyoucuswhatuget, 3. #6 Sharona Sunset. LONG SHOT; #2 Miss Pretty.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. #1 Lajatico, 2. #4 Everqueen, 3. #6 Tapped. LONG SHOT: #9 Snow Cloud.
Trainer Doug O’Neill isn’t know for his prowess on the turf, but he seems to do well in Del Mar turf sprints so we are with his horses in the first two slots. Long shot Snow Cloud is from the Jim Cassidy barn and he did very well last year going short on the grass, but why no Jamie Theriot?

EIGHTH RACE: 1. #6 Acharnement, 2. #4 Factorize, 3. #1 Midnight Summer. LONG SHOT: #10 Ginger Street.
It isn’t often that you jockey Gary Stevens stick around for the last race and a maiden claimer at that. Trainer Eddie Truman is 29% with horses the first time they drop into a maiden claimer for the first time. Trainer Peter Miller has both the second and third horses and is live whenever he runs first time at the meet.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Wednesday, July 19 (Opening day) Updated

PREVIEW: Del Mar is finally back and it’s Christmas in July for many people. There is nothing like opening day. On the track, look for Peter Miller to come out swinging with 10 horses set to run in the first card. I set the over/under at 2 1/2 wins Wednesday. Don’t forget red hot apprentice Evin Roman will be riding for the first time at the seaside oval and there will be a learning curve, especially on the turf. It will be fun to watch his development.

FIRST RACE: 1. #5 Getoffmyback, 2. #6 Papa Royale, 3. #4 Our Nation. LONG SHOT: #1 Post Rock.

I look for Miller to get off to fast start and it begins here as Roman rides this gelding. Miller is 26% with beaten favorites and I look for this one to be on the engine from the start.

SECOND RACE: 1. #1 PEDRO CERRANO (BEST BET), 2. #3 Where Y’at Joe Joe, 3. #6 Bronzino. LONG SHOT: #4 Holdthismiss.

It’s Miller time again. This gelding is a perfect 2-for-2 over the track.

THIRD RACE: 1. #2 Cheekaboomboom, 2. #6 Alsatian, 3. #3 Popular Kid. LONG SHOT: #1 Ibon.

FOURTH RACE: 1. #6 Literary Critic, 2. #3 Pretty Owl, 3. #8 Classy Tune. LONG SHOT: #2 Slim Fit.

FIFTH RACE: 1. #9 Mapit, 2. #8 Just a Smidge, 3. #3 Varanasi. LONG SHOT: #5 My Princess Taylor.

SIXTH RACE: 1. #3 Family Meeting, 2. #2 Nodiac, 3. #7 Moonless Sky. LONG SHOT: #1 Bert’s Melody.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. #9 Giant Expectations, 2. #10 Magical Mystery, 3. #1 Miner’s Light. LONG SHOT: #3 Tell Me a Story.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. #2 Bird Is the Word, 2. #4 Bowies Hero, 3. #1 Arms Runner. LONG SHOT: #9 Placido.

NINTH RACE: 1. #3 Helen’s Tiger, 2. #4 Spiced Perfection, 3. #6 Smiling Tigress. LONG SHOT: #9 Steak of Luck.

10TH RACE: 1. #3 Preacher Roe, 2. #5 Que Chistoso, 3. #6 Belisarius. LONG SHOT: #1 Dream Police.

More picks later. Wanna look at works in maiden races.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, Feb. 9

Preview: I’ll be honest, the first time through the races I didn’t look at the turf races because with rain on Tuesday I didn’t think they would run on it today, but with warmer weather and rain 100% in the forecast for Friday, I think they will run on it. Also in the seventh race, two horses popped up from one of the biggest key races of the year at Del Mar.

Race 1 – SA
#1 Informant (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: This will be a tough race to beat the favorites, but this filly ran her best race going around two turns at Del Mar and she finally returns to two turns today for trainer Eddie Truman.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 2 – SA
#7 Pearly de Vere (5-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Throw out that last race in the mud. Trainer Peter Miller claimed this mare to run down the hill, where she has three wins. Miller and jockey Kent Desormeaux have been hot. Might be a single in the Pick 5 and Pick 4.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#3 Nuke Laloosh (5-2) ****
Our Eyes: Sorry, not real original here, but everything Miller sends out is live these days. This gelding has been away since November but it’s Miller and Desormeaux again.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – SA
#8 Oscar Dominguez (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
#1 Landwade Lad (8-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: You never see me “dutch” a race but I’m going to here. These two horses are coming out of a Dec. 2 Del Mar race that has produced four winners from five starters, including Rye ($8) on Sunday. Oscar finished third in that race, beating the fifth place Lad by less than 2 lengths. I would bet both to win and place plus play an exacta box. If the odds get really high on one of them, put an extra bet on that one.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win and 6 units to place. EXBX 8-1.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Feb. 4

Preview: Some rain on Friday, but only one race was taken off the turf which is a good sign for today’s card. At the start of the race week, Jerry Hollendorfer, Peter Miller and Richard Baltas led the way on the dirt with eight wins each. Doug O’Neill was right behind with seven winners. On the other end, Steven Knapp was 0-for-10 followed by Mike Harrington (1-18) and Sal Gonzalez (1-14), all of whom were having trouble winning races.

Race 4: #9 Amer Sista (6-1): Took money in her debut, but was off slow and then in right. Trainer Phil D’Amato puts blinkers on (22% move) and top turf rider Flavien Prat stays on and he’s 24% with D’Amato.

Race 6: #8 Fabozzi (6-1): This gelding is 3-2-0-1 at the distance. The 4-year-old is moving up in class but trainer Mark Glatt is 30% with horses that won their last race and that man Prat rides again on the turf. Prat is 27% with Glatt.

Race 8: #5 Mor Spirit (3-1): Pure and simple that try in the Malibu was a prep for this race by trainer Bob Baffert. This 4-year-old tries older horses for the first time, but Baffert is 27% going sprint to route and jockey Mike Smith stays aboard.

Race 9: #8 Perfectly Majestic (10-1): This gelding has beaten some of these before and has a record of 18-4-5-6 on the grass. Kent Desormeaux gets back on and he has had success with this 5-year-old in the past.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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