Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 26

Race 4 – Tam
#6 Adios Ashley (15-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Jockey Pablo Morales has proven to be a master on the turf this meet. This filly has the second-best speed figure at the distance and the switch to Morales might bring in this long shot..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-7-2.

Race 6 – Tam
#8 Tizk Tizk (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno rides this gelding for the first tome. There are a couple of other firsts like going two turns and going long on the grass, but with Centeno it’s all good at the price.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-7-3.

Race 7 – Tam
#6 Cool Seas (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Another big jockey change here to Centeno. This filly comes out of a key race where the first two runners to come back have both won. #2 Commissioned is in the same boat but more upside to Cool Seas.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-2.

Race 8 – Tam
#6 Martini Glass (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly has never won on the turf but she hasn’t been disgraced either. Trainer Keith Nations is 30% third off the layoff and the filly comes out of a key race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-8-10.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Electro Peg (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Claimed last time out by Dale Bennett, who likely was looking at this spot. Centeno takes over on this closer..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-6-5.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, Feb. 10

Preview: Leading rider Daniel Centeno was shut out on Thursday as seven different jockeys won the eight races. Orlando Bocachica was the only jockey to win two races. Leading trainer Gerald Bennett is in a huge slump so beware.

Race 5 – Tam
#5 Pontificate (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Closed like a freight train in his last to get second at this level. Jesus Castanon takes the mount and is 2-for-3 at the meet with trainer Jonathan Thomas. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show. EXBX 5-10-3.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Saint Lipsi Chick (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Interesting game of musical chairs in this race between jockeys Ronnie Allen Jr., Centeno and Pablo Morales. Allen ends up on this mare, which has the best Late Pace Rating from Brisnet. While others battle on front end, Allen will bide his time on the class rise. — Jeff Nahill.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show. EXBX 6-5-2.

Race 8 – Tam
#2 Tearless (12-1) ***
Our Eyes: Interesting filly hear. One of her few main track tries she won going a mile, but it was on a sloppy track. So was it the slop or the main track. We might find out today with Bocachica aboard. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – Tam
#3 Cincy Belle (9-2) ****
Our Eyes: Centeno and trainer Arnaud Delacour team up with this filly. She finished fourth against winners last time and should be ready in this spot. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Thursday, Feb. 9

Preview: As we thought, Wednesday’s card was chalky, especially when the races came off the turf due to rain on Tuesday. The first Thursday card of the meet features only 8 races. Here’s hoping they are back on the turf, but you never know. Leading jockey Daniel Centeno won twice Wednesday, once via disqualification.

Race 3 – Tam
#1 Descarado (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Takes a big drop in class in her second off the layoff, a move trainer Darien Rodriguez is 33% with. Jockey Pablo Morales keeps the mount and is 25% with Rodriguez over the last year. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show.

Race 4 – Tam
#5 Stadium (3-2) TURF ONLY *****
Our Eyes: This looks like a single in all of the exotics as Centeno rides for trainer Arnaud Delacour. Takes huge drop in class and comes out of a key race that has produced three winners from five starters so far. — Jeff Nahill.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win and 10 units to place. EXBX 5-4.

Race 8 – Tam
#9 I Dream of Lois (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Centeno has ridden this filly twice in a row, breaking her maiden over this course and then was sixth against in class here and Centeno is 2-for-5 with trainer Kathleeen Demasi at the meet. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, Jan. 25

Preview: Daniel Centeno continues to lead the jockeys’ race with 42 winners from just 128 starters (33%) so he is picking his spots and not riding every race. He is followed in the standings by Ronnie Allen Jr. (28-174), Pablo Morales (24-117) and Edwin Gonzalez (23-105). Gonzalez is picking up steam and has made in roads in trainer Jamie Ness’ barn.

Race 1 – Tam
#7 Metroliner (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Here is a perfect example of Centeno choosing his spots. He rides for trainer Frances McNeely’s small barn. This gelding finished fourth at this level and figures to improve off that effort.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 7-6-5.

Race 3 – Tam
#2 Iron Run (9-2) ***
Our Eyes: This isn’t the best group on the grounds so why not go with a first-timer? Trainer Dale Bennett is 14% with first-time staters. The sire Fort Prado gets 7% winners. Bennett is 6-for-12 with jockey Pablo Morales at the meet.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#8 Bombonero (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: Horses shipping in from Laurel have done well during the meet. This colt finished sixth in his debut over the grass at Laurel. There are a couple of good works on the sheet and jockey Edwin Gonzalez jumps aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 10 – Tam
#2 Spunsational (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Michael Wright tried to get this filly on the grass last time but it was taken off. She still finished third. Huge jockey switch to Daniel Centeno and he rides the turf to perfection.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, April 29

Preview: Back to a nine-race card. Jockeys Dean Butler and Pablo Morales have the most wins the last seven days.

Race 2 – Tam

#5 Staff Sgt Reckless (7-2): This filly drops to her lowest level ever for trainer Joan Scott, who is 28% when moving a horse from a MSW to a maiden claimer. Leading jockey Antonio Gallardo jumps on.

                              

Race 4 – Tam

#4 Paltarrevenge (4-1): Trainer Maria Bowersock is 25% first off the claim and moves this gelding up after a win on the main track. Jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. jumps on.

 

Race 6 – Tam

#3 Step Two (turf only) (7-2): Throw out that last race at Gulfstream Park and look at that race at Tampa Bay two back.Jockey Pedro Cotto Jr. is 6-for-12 with trainer Joe Minieri at this meet.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Fair Grounds, Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, March 26 (plus Fair Grounds)

Preview: The rains hit Friday so I didn’t handicap any of the turf races because I don’t think they will stay on. If the track is wet, check out mud pedigrees. Also it’s that time of the year when trainers get horses ready for other tracks like trainer R. Gary Patrick, who stables at Indiana Downs, and has a pair of layoff horses today. Doubt if they are ready to win, but keep track.
Race 8: #5 Fancy Man (5-2): This colt finished second against better and trainer Dale Bennett drops him. Bennett is 30% third off the layoff and jockey Pablo Morales is 33% with Bennett.
Race 10: #1 Invasion Point (4-1): Just missed against better and takes a drop but jockey Daniel Centeno stays aboard.
THE FAIR GROUNDS
Race 9: #8 Land Over Sea (3-1): After five straight losses to superstar Songbird, trainer Doug O’Neil has seen enough and decides to flee Southern California. This daughter of Bellamy Road has finished second to Songbird twice this year. O’Neill gets John Velazquez to ride. We’ll never get this morning-line.
Race 10: #9 Dazzling Gem (12-1): Trainer Brad Cox has said he isn’t running in the Louisiana Derby for the heck of it and we believe him. This 3-year-old is a perfect 2-for-2 and while jockey Shaun Bridgmohan must work out a trip from this bad post, we think he can and the price is right.
@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter
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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Sunday, March 6

Preview: The turf races continue to provide value on the cards as the dirt races are filling up as much as they did earlier in the meet..

 

Race 5: #6 Pete’s Pita (12-1)

Interesting jockey switch here as second-leading jockey Daniel Centeno takes over on this gelding which is 0-for-5 at the meet but has a pair of thirds at this level.

                              

Race 8: #5 Cardinal Cove (5-2) (turf only)

This filly has been overmatched at Gulfstream Park so trainer Kathleen O’Connelll ships her north to a course she won over two years ago. Leading jockey Antonio Gallardo jumps on.

 

Race 10: #1 Hemakingabigscene (4-1)

Finished second at the level in his last race and draws inside for trainer Stephen Lyster and jockey Pablo Morales.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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