Churchill Downs, Horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown

Churchill Downs opinions for Saturday, May 2

Race 3: #5 Gandono (15-1)

This son of Lemon Drop Kid, a 14% turf sired, got rained off the turf in his last but showed marked improvement. Trainer David Carroll puts blinkers on today and jockey F. Geroux (a 20% turf rider) takes over.

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Race 8: #11 Water Hole (12-1)

Trainer Chad Brown puts this 4-year-old filly in a graded stakes for her U.S. debut, which says a lot. Jockey Gary Stevens (22% turf rider) and should have her in the right position turning for home.

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Race 13: #5 Imslopokerodriguez (15-1)

Certainly New York-based trained Rudy Rodriguez could have found a spot at Belmont to run this son of Tae of the Cat (16% sire first time out), but he decides to run here and puts in a huge work over the track to boot. NY’s Irad Ortiz rides and is 24% with Rodriguez.

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Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Derby top four

 #10 Firing Line

#18 American Pharoah

#8 Dortmund

#15 Frosted

 LONG SHOTS: International Star and Mubtaahij

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Churchill Downs, Horse racing

Churchill Downs opinions for Friday, May 1

Race 2: #11 Vouch for Kitten (8-1)

Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey like to go to the winner’s circle during Derby week and this 3-year-old filly makes her debut for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Joel Rosario. Offspring of Kitten’s Joy are 17% first time turf.

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Race 4: #5 Counterfactual (9-2)

This 3-year-old filly had a ton of trouble in her debut at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has good numbers in all areas and makes a key jockey switch to James Graham as they are 28% together.

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Race 9: #10 Power Alert (5-1)

The favorite in the Shakertown at Keeneland tired in second race off the layoff for trainer Brian Lynch, who is 26% in turf sprints. There is a ton of speed in here so we think jockey Julien Leparoux will come from off the pace and nail them at the wire. The sire Alert is 32% on the turf.

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Race 12: #4 Lunar Gaze (8-1)

Trainer Tom Amoss and jockey James Graham are looking to have a big Oaks Day. This filly pressed the pace in her debut, but had to wait at the quarter pole and lost all chance. Amoss is 31% with second-time starters.

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Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Oaks top four

#4 Eskenformoney

#12 Stellar Wind

#1 Forever Unbridled

#10 Oceanwave

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Churchill Downs, Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, April 30

Race 4: #1 Simplicityizegnius (6-1)

This 3-year-old turned in a even effort in debut at 6 ½ furlongs. Trainer Phil D’Amato now goes long second time out (26%) and puts blinkers on (35%). There’s a good blow out work showing from earlier in the week and Joe Talamo stays aboard .

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Race 8: #8 Sir Irish Danny (8-1)

Trainer John Sadler loves to claim young horses and then turn them around. Here he has a $50K claim by Unusual Heat making his first turf start (12%) and Sadler is 24% first off the claim.

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Bonus Churchill Downs pick

Race 8: #3 Nileator (4-1)

This 3-year-old must beat an even-money favorite in this spot, but he comes out of a Gulfstream Park race that has produced four next out winners . Trainer Dale Romans is 21% turf to dirt and all-world jockey Javier Castellano takes the mount.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown

Churchill Downs selections for Kentucky Derby Day, May 3

Kentucky Derby

11TH RACE: 20 Wicked Strong, 5 California Chrome, 15 Tapiture, 17 Commanding Curve. LONG SHOT: 14 Medal Count.

I liked HOPPERTUNITY until he was scratched. WICKED STRONG was impressive in winning the Wood Memorial. CALIFORNIA CHROME deserves favoritism. TAPITURE might be ready to rebound. COMMANDING CURVE had a horrible trip in Louisiana Derby, but was running at the end. MEDAL COUNT is bred to get the distance.

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Race 4: #10 Kyriaki (3-1)

There is a ton of speed in this grass race. This filly ships in from Santa Anita for trainer Peter Eurton and appears to be the only true closer in the bunch. Jockey Mike Smith takes the mound and should be flying down the lane.

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SIXTH RACE (Churchill Distaff Turf Mile): 1. I’m Ready Sexy, 2. Centre Court, 3. Miz Ida, 4. Effie Trinket. LONG SHOT: Ready Signal.

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SEVENTH RACE (Humana Distaff): 1. Midnight Lucky, 2. Judy the Beauty, 3. Scherzinger, 4. Iotapa. LONG SHOT: Speedinthruthecity.

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EIGHTH RACE (American Turf): 1. Cleburne (30-1), 2. Chief Barker, 3. Woodfield Springs, 4. Global View. LONG SHOT: Craftsman.

This running of the American Turf is wide open so why not go with a long shot which has a Hall of Fame jockey aboard (Mike Smith). CLEBURNE, a son of Dixie Union, broke his maiden on the grass and then won on the dirt at Churchill before going to sidelines in September. After finishing third in the Calder Derby last month, he returns to the grass and looks like he will be moving turning for home.

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NINTH RACE (Churchill Downs): 1. Delaunay, 2. Shakin It Up, 3. Sahara Sky, 4. Clearly Now. LONG SHOT: Broadway Empire.

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10TH RACE (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic): 1. Wise Dan (best bet), 2. Seek Again, 3. Guys Reward, 4. Bright Thought. LONG SHOT: Boisterous.

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Race 13: #8 Rocket Time (15-1)

This is a first-time starter sired by Tiz Wonderful, who is good first time out. Trainer Al Stall is 16% with first-timers and 27% with first-timers going a route plus jockey Joel Rosario takes the mount and they are a 33% proposition the last two years.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Friday’s top choice winners: 1 (Fiftyshadesofgold $6.20, eighth race)

Friday’s second choice winners: 2 (On Fire baby $5.20, fifth; Untapable $4, 11th)

Friday’s third and long show winners: 0

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Horse racing

Churchill Downs picks for Kentucky Oaks Day, May 2

Remember first post is 7:30 a.m. here on the West Coast for this Kentucky Oaks program at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

We’ll stick to the stakes races on the program.

FIFTH RACE (Grade I La Troienne): 1. Devil’s Cave, 2. On Fire Baby, 3. Magic Union, 4. Unlimited Budget. LONG SHOT: Molly Morgan.

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SIXTH RACE (Grade III Turf Sprint): 1. Sum of the Parts, 2. Stormofthecentury, 3. Scatman, 4. Ancil. LONG SHOT: Googleado.

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EIGHTH RACE (Grade III Eight Belles): 1. Fiftyshadesofgold, 2. She’s a Tiger, 3. Jojo Warrior, 4. Our Amazing Rose. LONG SHOT: Milam.

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NINTH RACE (Edgewood): 1. Little Journey, 2. Granny Mc’s Kitten, 3. Candy Kitty, 4. Miss Machiavelli. LONG SHOT: V V Goodnight.

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10TH RACE (Grade II Alysheba): 1. Mylute, 2. Will Take Charge, 3. Golden Ticket, 4. Golden Soul. LONG SHOT: Bradester.

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11TH RACE (Grade I Kentucky Oaks): 1. Ria Antonia, 2. Untapable, 3. Aurelia’s Belle, 4. Rosalind. LONG SHOT: Got Lucky.

There is no doubt UNTAPABLE will go off as a heavy favorite here, and she should after her recent races, but the No. 13 post is a bear to overcome. RIA ANTONIA finished a good second in the Santa Anita Oaks as jockey Mike Smith rode her for the first time. She badly needed that race and should be ready to go for trainer Bob Baffert.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Santa Anita, Triple Crown

California Chrome’s connections fine with No. 5 draw in Derby

Jockey Victor Espinoza was more than happy when Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite California Chrome (5-2), who trains at Los Alamitos Race Course in Orange County, drew the No. 5 post for Saturday’s Run for the Roses in Louisville, Ky.

“It’s my lucky number,” said Espinoza.

Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby aboard War Emblem from post No. 5 for trainer Bob Baffert in 2002.

California Chrome also won the Santa Anita Derby from post five in his last start and the 3-year-old, trained by Art Sherman, will be looking for his fifth straight victory on the track.

With California Chrome’s tactical speed, the No. 5 post should not prove a problem as Espinoza should be able to get out quickly and place him where he wants.

“He’s an amazing horse to ride,” said Espinoza. “I let him do his own thing. I think that’s why he’s running so great.”

Sherman obviously didn’t want to draw the No. 1 hole like Louisiana Derby winner Vicars In Trouble (30-1) did or the outside post in the 20-horse field like Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong (8-1).

“I like it fine,” said Sherman after the draw. “Victor says he likes it. I’m happy and I feel no pressure.”

California Chrome has been a step slow in two of his last five starts, but Sherman isn’t worried.

“We’re going to school (from the gate Thursday),” said Sherman. “(In a race) he’ll be standing there perfect and just before he gets anxious. When he puts those blinkers on he gets anxious because he knows it’s a whole new ballgame (race day).”

Arkansas Derby winner Danza (10-1) drew just inside California Chrome in the No. 4 post.

Other California horses drew toward the outside in Hoppertunity (6-1) at No. 11, Dance With Fate (20-1) at No. 12, Chitu (20-1) at No. 13 and Candy Boy (20-1) at No. 18 for trainer John Sadler and jockey Gary Stevens.

Hoppertunity, who finished second to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby, was made the second choice on the morning line after Wicked Strong drew the outside post.

However, four of the last six Derby winners have come from the auxiliary gate (post No. 15 and out) and the last three in a row have come from there.

Baffert trains both Hoppertunity and Chitu. He was fine with the draw for both.

“I’m happy with the way the horses are training and that’s more important,” he said. “The only disadvantage is that Hoppertunity is going to have to wait in the gate for a long time, but I’d rather wait in the 11-hole than wait in the one-hole. I think he’s second choice because he’s gotten the closest to California Chrome this year.”

Chitu is expected to be part of the speed in the 1¼-mile race.

“You don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Baffert. “The speed horses, you don’t know who’s going to break, who’s going to go, what if the pace isn’t fast? What if it’s a War Emblem pace and they keep going? I think nobody knows. We’re all assuming a lot of stuff but, this Derby, aside from that California Chrome has proven he’s a really good horse, there’s a lot of horses in there that are pretty close. There’s a lot of parity in this field so that’s why we have 20 horses, because everybody might have a chance. He’s fast. (Jockey) Martin Garcia thinks he can do it so he’s real confident about the horse.”

Trainer Peter Eurton didn’t have a problem with Blue Grass winner Dancer With Fate’s draw.

“I am thrilled with it,” he said. “There is a lot of speed to the inside of us rather than outside and that should give us a good chance to pick a spot.”

Sadler said he doesn’t worry about post draws.

“It’s OK,” Sadler said. “I’d rather be outside than in. And I don’t put a lot of energy into things I can’t control. We’ll figure out a strategy and go from there. I think we’ll be fine.”

Stevens said he was already planning a strategy as the draw progressed, but he wasn’t giving away any trade secrets.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Santa Anita, Triple Crown

On to Kentucky for California Chrome

California_Chrome_cb4_200 (1)

California Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza return to the winner’s circle after winning Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby. BENOIT PHOTO

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The overwhelming sentiment when leaving Santa Anita Park in Arcadia on Saturday was that everyone saw the winner of next month’s Kentucky Derby. Heck, he might finally break the drought of Triple Crown winners.

And they well have, but maybe it wasn’t the horse you’re thinking about.

There’s no doubt that California Chrome was spectacular in winning Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby. But will he be the winner on the first Saturday of May in Louisville, Ky.

The thing you have to remember is there will be a full field of 20 horses at Churchill Downs. There will be all kinds of trouble for all kinds of horses. There will be horses that don’t belong, and California Chrome surely isn’t one of those, but he could get stopped by one who is. Remember funny things happen in 20-horse fields.

I hope California Chrome wins it for trainer Art Sherman and jockey Victor Espinoza and to stick it to the “bluebloods,” but I know too many things can go wrong. It just seems amazing to me that California Chrome was running last summer in Cal-bred races and now maybe the betting favorite in Kentucky. It brings back fond memories of Silver Charm, one of my all-time favorites.

Hoppertunity, who finished second to California Chrome, certainly belongs in the equation. He has run three good races in a row.

And perhaps the most impressive 3-year-old winner Saturday was Wicked Strong taking the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, seemingly passing the entire field in the stretch.

Personally, I’m keeping my eye on Commanding Curve, who finished third in the Louisiana Derby, to see if he gets in.

And don’t forget there are two more big preps this coming Saturday with the Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Arkansas Derby at Hot Spring, Ark.

Wait until all the data is in and then make your decision. Just think how many other times have you left Santa Anita on its Derby Day saying you thought you saw the winner of the Kentucky Derby?

You might have and you might not.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

Saturday’s top choice winners: 0

Saturday’s second choice winners: 3 (Fashion Plate $6.20, fifth race; Nashoba’s Gold $7.40, seventh; Kerrilynn $10.60, 11th)

Saturday’s third choice winners: 4 (Reno Rebel $6.80, first; Storm Fighter $6.40, second; California Chrome $3.40, eighth; Seeking the Sherif $9.80, 10th)

Saturday’s long shot winners: 1 (Alert Bay $20.20, third)

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Sunday’s top choice winners: 1 (Crusher $7.60, first race)

Sunday’s second choice winners: 3 (Big Note $10.40, fourth; Congregationalist $11.80, seventh; Perfect Tango $7, ninth)

Sunday’s third choice winners: 0

Sunday’s long shot winners: 1 (Jules Journey $14.40, sixth)

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