Breeders' Cup, Horse racing, Keeneland, Keeneland Race Course

Breeders’ Cup selections for Saturday, Oct. 31

Race 3: JUVENILE FILLIES

10-Songbird

1-Land Over Sea

9-Rachel’s Valentina

2-Tap to It

I have thought all along SONGBIRD would be the most likely winner on this card, but then she drew outside post, No. 10. I still think she is the one to beat, but I think LAND OVER SEA needs a longer look after drawing No. 1 and finishing second to Songbird two times in a row.

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Race 4: TURF SPRINT

1-Pure Sensation

9-No Silent

14-Mongolian Saturday

4-Bobby’s Kitten

I think this a wide open race. The only thing I think is I’m not betting favored LADY SHIPMAN. If she wins, I lose. I like the fact that PURE SENSATION draws the inside and he likes it hard or soft turf plus John Velazquez rides. I hope NO SILENT comes from off the pace for the Gary Mandella barn.

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Race 5: FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

2-Dame Dorothy

11-Judy the Beauty

6-Super Majesty

3-Taris

This 4-year-old filly DAME DOROTHY is making her third start off the layoff for that powerful jack-trainer combination of Velazquez and Todd Pletcher. She will likely press the pace from the inside and she loves this 7-furlong distance with a 4-for-5 record.

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Race 6: FILLY AND MARE TURF

10-Bawina

3-Legatissimo

9-Miss France

6-Queen’s Jewel

Once again I’m sticking with the Euros in this race. BAWINA gets the services of Oliver Pesleir back and they have won three races together. She is first time Lasix and had some trouble in her last race.

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Race 7: SPRINT

8-Wild Dude

5-Runhappy

4-Limousine Liberal

2-Kobe’s Back

Of course there is a ton of speed in this race and I’m going with the horse I think is the best closer in WILD DUDE for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Rafael Bejarano.

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Race 8: MILE

11-Karakontie

4-Mondialiste

3-Make Believe

9-Esoterique

Again sticking with the foreign horses and KARAKONTIE is the defending champions of this race. Can you say back-to-back?

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Race 9: JUVENILE

9-Exaggerator

12-Swipe

10-Ralis

13-Nyquist

The West Coast horses have done pretty good around the country in the 2-year-old ranks and it will be no different here. Jockey Kent Desormeaux had his choice of horses entered by his brother, trainer Keith Desormeaux, and he settled on this son of Curlin, EXAGGERATOR.

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Race 10: TURF

9-Found

1-Golden Horn

10-The Pizza Man

4-Big John B

GOLDEN HORN will be a lot a single for a lot of people but just not convinced he has to win this race after already winning the Arc in France. I’m going with the 3-year-old filly FOUND, trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore.

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Race 10: CLASSIC

9-Honor Code

4-American Pharoah

10-Tonalist

3-Frosted

Like I said before it’s a shame BEHOLDER isn’t in this race. AMERICAN PHAROAH is now the clear speed although others will likely take a shot at him. I’m going with the deep closer HONOR CODE, trained by Shug McGaughey. Honor Code was impressive at Saratoga and I look for a similar effort.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar: Time to get caught up

OK, a little slow on the results this weekend with work and sickness in the family so the last three days are listed below.

But let’s take a look at some trainer and jockey stats heading into the final six days of the meet before we get into that.

Rafael Bejarano is the top jockey on turf or dirt and since he’s the leading rider at the meet that shouldn’t come as any surprise. Bejarano is 12-for-73 on the grass (16%) and 21-112 (19%) on the dirt.

On the grass, Joe Talamo is 10-53 (19%) followed by Santaigo Gonzalez (9-49, 18%), Flavien Prat (8-62, 13%), Corey Nakatani (8-31, 26%) and Mario Gutierrez (7-33, 21%).

The surprising thing to me is that Nakatani doesn’t get more mounts on the grass considering his winning percentage and maybe Prat is overrated because of his background of riding for trainer Andre Fabre in France.

I’m also surprised that Gutierrez is so good on turf and he’s fifth in the dirt standings (14-81, 17%). Never been a big fan of his, but he is riding most of Paul Reddam’s horses and Reddam is having a great meet.

On the training side, I was shocked to see Doug O’Neill leads with 7 wins from 31 starters on the green. There was a time a few years back when O’Neill was a throw out on the grass. Mike Puype is second with six wins from 29 starters (21%) followed by Peter Miller (5-41, 12%) and Phil D’Amato (5-33, 15%).

On the dirt, trainer is running away with top honors with 16 wins from 53 starters (30%). Bob Baffert, Miller, Richard Baltas and John Sadler all have 10 wins on the new dirt main track. Sadler has hit at a 34% clip (29 starters).

As one would suspect, Baffert leads all trainers in 2-year-old wins with seven from 23 starts. O’Neill and Hollendorfer both have four wins each from 2-year-olds.

Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Friday’s top choice winners: 2 (Midnight Belle $6, second race; Scatchmeifyoucan, seventh)

Friday’s second choice winners: 2 (Desert Steel $6.20, third; Minster’sadventure $4.60, fifth)

Friday’s third choice winners: 0

Friday’s long shot winners: 1 (Patriotic Diamond $5.80, sixth)

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Saturday’s top choice winners: 4 (Gimme Da Lute $2.40, third race; Justonemorething $18.20, sixth; Del MarAnn $19.40, ninth; Soul Flyer $8.40, 10th)

Saturday’s second choice winners: 0

Saturday’s third choice winners: 1 (Oil $6.20, fifth)

Saturday’s long shot winners: 0

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Sunday’s top choice winners: 2 (Stellar Wind $3, third; Sunbeamsfromheaven $4, eighth)

Sunday’s second choice winners: 2 (Professor Berns $7.80, fifth; Always a Chance $8.20, sixth)

Sunday’s third choice winners: 2 (Pepnic $14.20, second; Chiropractor $6.40, seventh)

Sunday’s long shot winners: 1 (No Contingency $6.20, fourth)

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Updated Del Mar picks for Friday, August 30

FIRST RACE: 1. Lilly’s Perfect, 2. Bonita Star, 3. Splendiferous Moon. LONG SHOT: Ribot Belle.

There’s lots to like about LILLY’S PERFECT. First you have leading jockey Rafael Bejarano. Then you have second leading trainer Doug O’Neill. Then you have a 6-year-old mare who is dropping in class and has been in the money five of the seven times she has run a mile on the main track.

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SECOND RACE: 1. My Lucky Rose, 2. Grazenette, 3. Another Victoria. LONG SHOT: Full of Slew.

Trainer Bob Baffert takes the quick drop from the straight maiden ranks to the maiden claiming ranks with this 2-year-old filly. She showed some speed last time and that’s always dangerous at this level. GRAZENETTE is bred to win early and to be a sprinter. Her works are pretty decent for the level. FULL OF SLEW comes out of a key race where three horses have come back to win next time out.

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THIRD RACE: 1. GULSARY (best bet), 2. Blues and Silvers, 3. Perfecta. LONG SHOT: Double Ante.

Glen Hill Farm and trainer Tom Proctor had been preparing GULSARY, a 4-year-old daughter of Galileo, at Arlington Park and decide to run at Del Mar to know doubt try and collect part of that “Ship ‘N Win” bonus money. This filly made $47,828 in France and ran in two graded stakes. Jockey Gary Stevens sees fit to ride off the 10-month layoff. Stevens and Proctor are a 23 percent proposition.

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FOURTH RACE: 1. Goodhumorgirl, 2. Take One, 3. Gracie Ragazza. LONG SHOT: Quick Approval.

GOODHUMORGIRL is a first-time starter from the Jeff Bonde barn. She is by Sharp Humor, a good first out sire, and speed jockey Edwin Maldonado gets aboard. Good works on a pair of first-timers in QUICK APPROVAL and PEGGY LYNN, but they start from in the inside two post which can be intimidating for 2-year-olds.

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FIFTH RACE: 1. Frenemy, 2. Salah Champ, 3. Afflication. LONG SHOT: Cardio Royale.

FRENEMY takes a drop in class for leading trainer John Sadler and Bejarano stays on. Look for a better effort.

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SIXTH RACE (El Cajon Stakes): 1. Pataky Kid, 2. U’narack, 3. Fury Kapcori. LONG SHOT: Tiz a Minister.

This is a tough edition of the El Cajon for 3-year-olds going a mile on the Polytrack. PATAKY KID is 3-for-4 on synthetic tracks for trainer Tom Proctor. Look for this one to be rolling on the turn with jockey Garrett Gomez.

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SEVENTH RACE: 1. Tickle Again, 2. St. Malo’s Gate, 3. Cee’s Tizzy Belle. LONG SHOT: Tribal Valentine.

TICKLE AGAIN gets a big jockey change from apprentice Arnold Perez to veteran Patrick Valenzuela. It might be the winning move for trainer Thomas Blincoe, who is winless at the meet.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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