Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Feb. 3

Preview: To be honest I’m not sure what to do with this card because rain has been forecast for much of the week, but the percentage has gone down. It probably means there is 100% of rain and it will wash the turf races off the grass.

Race 1 – SA
#2 Rangi (7-2) (TURF ONLY) ****
Our Eyes: The Peter Miller barn has been on fire for the last week. This gelding has speed and takes a drop in class. He has won over the downhill before and Rafael Bejarano stays aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 3 – SA
#1 Yellow Bonnett (5-2) ****
Our Eyes: Been following this filly for a while and she finally gets to run around two turns for the first time, which she is bred to do. Trainer Mark Glatt is 24% second off the layoff and he’s 27% with Flavien Prat.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#7 Sequentially (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding faced tougher in his debut at Del Mar and now takes a class drop. Glatt is 31% when dropping a horse two or more classes. He is also 21% with jockey Norberto Arroyo Jr..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Monday, Jan. 16

Preview: OK, let’s try this again. Santa Anita pulled the one turf race off the grass Sunday and they are shooting for today after all the wet weather. They better be because they have a few on the grass.

Race 1 – SA
#4 Moscato Girl (6-1) ***
Our Eyes: Jockey Flavien Prat jumps on this mare who used to run a lot in these parts. She has been on Northern California for trainer Bill McLean. She likes to lie close to the pace so look for Prat to egt over the the rail and press the pace.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#9 Yellow Bonnet (6-1) (turf only) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Mark Glatt tried to keep her on the turf at Del Mar, but it was taken off so she had a six-week freshening. Hat Trick offspring win at a 14% rate on the grass. Joe Talmo keeps the mount and Glatt is 20% off a layoff like this.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – SA
#4 Surfside Sunset (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This colt comes out of a key Del Mar race that has produced three next out winners. Kent Desormeaux rides for one of his main men, Bob Hess Jr. Showed no early speed last but a nice closing kick. Going two turns for the first time might mean more speed.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 10 – SA
#9 Calle Kingpin (12-1) turf only ***
Our Eyes: I love when offspring of Street Boss run first time on the turf (18% winners) and this 3-year-old is out of a Theactrical mare (16% winners). Jockey Stewart Elliott is 22% with trainer Mike Puype and coming off a Sunday win.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Monday, Dec. 26 (opening day)

Race 1: #9 Informant (8-1): This filly has never crossed the finish line first as she broke her maiden on a DQ, but she fits here. She is cutting back to one turn and trainer Eddie Truman is 32% third off the layoff.

Race 2: #2 Sawbuck (3-1) BEST BET: This maiden has been favored in his last two and might be here, too. Flavien Prat takes over and this 2-year-old has the second-best early pace rating and the best late rating by Brisnet.

Race 5: #9 Ruby Trust (6-1): There are plenty of top maidens from Bob Baffert and Jerry Hollendorfer in this race, but I’m going with a filly who finished third in a maiden race at Del Mar and that race has produced three next out winners.

Race 8: #8 Mor Spirit (6-1): This might be a prep for this 3-year-old by trainer Bob Baffert, but the fact of the matter he comes out of the Kentucky Derby and six horses have exited that race to win their next race. This ridgling has a 5-2-3-0 record on this track and 7 furlongs hits him right between the eyes.

Good Luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Thursday, Dec. 1

Preview: Jockey Flavien Prat will miss the remainder of the meet after being thrown from a mount on Sunday. Prat saw blood in his urine and doctors told him not to ride again until Dec. 26, opening day at Santa Anita. There will be plenty of jock changes Thursday and Friday so pay attention.

Sorry late again.

Race 1: #6 Easter Fever (2-1) BEST BET, 2. Ron Sophia, 3. Princess Kendra. LONG SHOT: Q’Viva.
Could be a single on most Picks 5s. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 22% first off the claim and 2-for-5 when dropping off the claim. Even with the drop, if D’Amato wins and the 4-year-old gets claimed he makes a nice profit. This 4-year-old has has good early speed.

Race 2: 1. T. Montana, 2. Sorry Erik, 3. Beantown Noys. LONG SHOT: Mizzen Me.

Race 3: 1. Nat’s Nation, 2. Malko, 3. Trust Your Gut. LONG SHOT: Motoring Around.

Race 4: #6 Princess Marie (6-1), 2. Big Adventure, 3. War Factor. LONG SHOT: Dumont.
This filly has had trouble in her last two starts and now she goes two turns for the first time. Trainer Kristin Mulhall is 24% when she has two sprints into a route. Mulhall had secured leading jockey Prat before his injury so that’s a good sign.

Race 5: 1. Halo Darling, 2. Conquest So True, 3. Sid the Squid. LONG SHOT: Flaming Vixen.

Race 6: 1. Alright Alright, 2. Blameitonthelaw, 3. Indavidualist. LONG SHOT: Act.

Race 7: 1. Guns Loaded, 2. Siletn Bird, 3. Conquest Cobra. LONG SHOT: El Huerfano.

Race 8: #7 Bona Fide Image (5-1), 2. Another Girl Alma, 3. Bissou Bissou. LONG SHOT: Rally Back.
Trainer Bill Spawr isn’t know for his work with 2-year-olds but this filly could be sitting on a win after trouble in her last race. Spawr is 21% with maiden claimers and 18% with beaten favorites. He also has a good late kick and jockey Tyler Baze keeps the mount.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, Nov. 25

Preview: Rain is expected to hit the Del Mar area this afternoon so make sure you check the track conditions. Trainer Peter Miller continued his rampage on Thursday with three more wins, giving him eight in the last three racing days. On the riding front, there are five jockeys within three wins at the top as Flavien Prat and Santiago Gonzalez were tied with eight wins each through Thursday.

Race 1: 1. #6 Look Twice (3-1), 2. L’s Choice, 3. Bluegrass Bronco. LONG SHOT: What We Doing.

Peter Miller claimed this gelding last time out and leaves him at the same level. Like we said Miller has been hot and spotting his horses well. Apprentice Austin Solis gets the mount and has won of 3-of-8 with Miller.

Race 2: 1. Glacken Too, 2. Alabama Tide, 3. Malibu Mogul. LONG SHOT: Louden’s Gray.

Race 3: 1. Midnight Candy, 2. Margie’s Minute, 3. Sharp Holiday. LONG SHOT: Trinitys Turn.

Race 4: 1. #2 Horse Laugh (6-1) (turf only), 2. Richard’s Boy, 3. Eddie Haskell. LONG SHOT: War Envoy.

There is a ton of speed in this race so we are going with the closer of the bunch in this 5-year-old gelding. The son of Stormello finished third on this course against tougher this summer. Jockey Jamie Theriot takes the mount.

Race 5: 1. #2 Vexatious (4-1), 2. Bernina Star, 3. Mistressofthenight. LONG SHOT: Diamond of Value.

This is a tough maiden race, but we think trainer Neil Drysdale just put this one in for the experience last time and today is what the son of Giant’s Causeway really wants to do (go long on the dirt). Kent Desormeaux keeps the mount over one for his trainer/brother. Drysdale is 19% with maiden second time starters.

Race 6: 1. Journey Home, 2. Defiant Honor, 3. With Honors. LONG SHOT: La Force.

Race 7: 1. Unique Bella, 2. Mannerly, 3. Top Quality. LONG SHOT: Princess Nile.

Race 8: 1. Vyjack, 2. Om, 3. Ring Weekend. LONG SHOT: A Red Tie Day.

Race 9: 1. General Info, 2. Majestic Journey, 3. One I’m Running To. LONG SHOT: Pamper n’ Boots.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar picks for Friday, Nov. 25 (Sorry they are late)

Preview: Despite missing last Saturday, jockey Flavien Prat leads the riding race by one (8-7) over Santiago Gonzales. In the training standings, a hat trick on Sunday put Peter Miller on top with six victories. Then he won three more races on Thursday and he is starting to run away with the training title.

SORRY PICKS ARE LATE.

Race 1: #6 Holidayincambodia (8-1), 2. Altaira, 3. Rosarita. LONG SHOT: Audra.
This filly won at this level at LRC, then was bumped up and now comes back down. Trainer Dan Hendricks is 33% when dropping a horse two or more classes. Jockey Brice Blanc continues to ride.

Race 2: 1. Salient, 2. Jet Set Man, 3. My Uncle Al. LONG SHOT: Hot Rodin.

Race 3: 1. Mr Ability, 2. Hot Smoke, 3. Elwood J. LONG SHOT: Ms. Wakaya.

Race 4: 1. Miss Big Stuff, 2. Lajatico, 3. Sturdy One. LONG SHOT: Little Voice.

Race 5: #2 Ourroseofthenile (8-1), 2. Wicked Factor, 3. Pontificator. LONG SHOT: Tell My Fortune.
Gave an even effort in her debut in late August and hasn’t been seen since. That race has produced at least two winners. This daughter of Pioneerof the Nile got out of the gate slow and it looks like trainer Joe Herrick has worked on that. Jockey Iggy Puglisi stays aboard.

Race 6: 1. Ashleyluvssugar, 2. Flamboyant, 3. Quick Casablanca. LONG SHOT: Royal Albert Hall.

Race 7: 1. Prime Attraction, 2. Univited, 3. My Italian Babbo. LONG SHOT: Hollywood Strike.

Race 8: #11 Alsatian (8-1), 2. Extreme Heat, 3. Amodei. LONG SHOT: Bottle Service.
We liked this colt last week when he was entered but trainer Neil Drysdale scratched and we’re not happy about the outside draw but the rails are at zero so that will help anyone going wide. This colt is bred to love the turf and Drysdale has them cranked up first time out but he’s 19% second time. Good turf rider Drayden Van Dyke takes the mount.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Friday, Nov. 18

Preview: Just a so-so weekday card. Jockey Flavien Prat has started the meet on top in the jockey standings with four wins, but shockingly all of his wins are on the dirt. Prat came into the week 0-for-10 on the grass and that won’t last long. Norberto Arroyo is due to return to riding today after missing Thursday due to a personal issue. Three winners on Thursday, including the early daily double and second race trifecta cold. I really like Alsatian in the last race, but that horse was scratched on Thursday so I will be watching the entries closely.

Race 1: 1. Nanybelle, 2. Princess Tiznow, 3. Santa Nella. LONG SHOT: Chuchotti.

Race 2: 1. Chicago Angle, 2. Joan of Arch, 3. Frandontjudge. LONG SHOT: Papaslilprincess.

Race 3: 1. Southern Drawl, 2. My Aunt Tillie, 3. Sweet Judy. LONG SHOT: Correlation.

Race 4: 1. #7 Limited Response (5-1) BEST BET, 2. Madelyn’s Wild Max, 3. Nextdoorneighbor. LONG SHOT: Accelerant.
Trainer Doug O’Neill claimed this gelding last time out and immediately drops him. However, a win and claim here he’s out on the horse. O’Neill is 20% first off the claim and this 6-year-old has a pair of wins at this 7-furlong distance, something I like to see at these elongated sprint distances.

Race 5: 1. Marchtothemusic, 2. True Appeal, 3. Squared Squared. LONG SHOT: Tiz Indy.

Race 6: 1. Jimmy Bouncer, 2. Bottle Rocket, 3. Stormy Rocit. LONG SHOT: Secreto Primero.

Race 7: 1. Princess Karen, 2. Auntjenn, 3. Fact of Life. LONG SHOT: Carrie.

Race 8: 1. Jet Ski, 2. Burnt Cognac, 3. Calli Way. LONG SHOT: Marckie’s Water.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Thursday, November 17

Preview: Jockey Rafael Bejarano will be out until Nov. 26 so look for Flavien Prat to jump on a lot of his previous mounts. As for the track, the No. 1 post was 3-for-13 in dirt sprints but 1-for-14 in dirt route races and 0-for-11 in all turf races. Small sample but something to consider.

Race 1: 1. Late ‘n Left, 2. Rocky’s Rainbow, 3. Tinderette. LONG SHOT: Quality Key.

Race 2: 1. Warrensdollarsigns, 2. Hal’s Buddy, 3. Buttercup Gold. LONG SHOT: Individual Design.

Race 3: 1. Over Par, 2. Luckarack, 3. Eagle Screams. LONG SHOT: Plain Wrap.

Race 4: 1. Adir, 2.Wild Mischief, 3. Mimis Big Boy. LONG SHOT: Solar Zone.

Race 5: 1. Tiz Seeking a Win, 2. My Pi Romancer, 3. Princess Roi. LONG SHOT: Ocean Dream.

Race 6: 1. #1 Passionate Emotion (6-1), 2. Kristie’s Heart, 3. Daring Darling. LONG SHOT: Pico Chick.
We’ve mentioned that jockey Kent Desormeaux wakes horses up the first time he rides them and we’re hoping for that here on this class dropper. This filly has won twice over this surface and trainer Mark Glatt is 31% the second time he runs a horse acquired from another barn.

Race 7: 1. #4 Mizzen Glory (12-1), 2. Mai Tai, 3. Almost Reality. LONG SHOT: La Premiere Etoile.

Trainer Cliff Sise Jr. isn’t known for winning first time out so this daughter of Mizzen Mast must have some talent to have done that at LRC. Now she tries the turf and a route for the first time. Sise is 3-for-9 first time turf and Mizzen Mast is 11% first time on grass.

Race 8: 1. #8 Pattin for a Dance (9-2) BEST BET, 2. Gio’s Lady, 3. Princess Marie. LONG SHOT: Eskenforandreya.

Reasoning would say that in a 5 1/2-furlong race to go with a speed horse, but I’m going contrarian here. This filly is a closer and holds a 9-point advantage on Brisnet’s Late Pace Ratings. This filly was beaten as a favorite last time, getting off to a slow start. Look for improvement.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, November 12

Preview: Keep in mind that journeyman Norberto Arroyo Jr. had a big summer meet here, especially on the turf, so keep it in mind at this fall meet. Good card for this time of year. Jockeys Rafael Bejarano (hand injury) and Mario Gutierrez (sickness) missed opening day on Friday. Hope someone bet my long shots on Friday as two of them came in.

Race 1: 1. #6 Klondike Creek (5-2), 2. Evicted, 3. Bedeviled. LONG SHOT: Pappou.

This colt is making only his third career start and he showed big improvement in his first race on the grass. Trainer Richard Mandella is 36% with second-time turfers and 29% with horses running their second time at a route. Flavien Prat keeps the mount.

Race 2: 1. Lunar Express, 2. Savannah Sky, 3. Call ot Congrats. LONG SHOT: Miss Star Maker.

Race 3: 1. SABI SANDS (BEST BET), 2. Sly Humor, 3. Princess Hulia. LONG SHOT: Mopotism

Race 4: 1. Defiantly, 2. Barhanpour, 3. Mittersill. LONG SHOT: Camino Del Paraiso.

Race 5: 1. #6 Velvet Jones (7-2), 2. Lil Miss Sapphire, 3. Feel Freely. LONG SHOT: Cioppino Pasadino.

This filly broke her maiden first time over this track with a come from behind effort. A similar style might work here as there appears to be a lot of speed. She is dropping out of a minor stakes race and gets a big jockey switch to Rafael Bejarano.

Race 6: 1. Infinite Magic, 2. Cervaro, 3. Tattenham. LONG SHOT: Saint Loup.

Race 7: 1. Thunder Basin, 2. Pedro Cerrano, 3. Anthonysgotgame. LONG SHOT: Smokey’s Legacy.

Race 8: 1. Crown the Kitten, 2. Hobbits Hero, 3. McHeat. LONG SHOT: Banze No Oeste.

Race 9: 1. #12 Gavin Streetsense (10-1), 2. Little Mustard, 3. The Golden Kid. LONG SHOT: Johann’s Command.

This gelding ran fourth over this track at this distance at this level. Trainer Richard Baltas owns this 3-year-old and he makes a jockey change to journeyman Tiago Pereira and they are 29% together.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Breeders' Cup, Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Friday, Sept. 2 (3:30 p.m. first post)

Preview: Interesting that the featured Cal-bred stakes is moved out of the Pick 6 and run as race 2. I don’t see a big favorite so don’t know why. The trainers race could come down to the final day on Monday. Phil D’Amato started the week with 19 winners followed by Richard Baltas at 16 and Bob Baffert and Peter Miller with 15 each. You can bet all those barns will be firing over the final four days of the meet.

Race 1: 1. #8 Crown of Light (8-1), 2. Princess Tiznow, 3. She’s Got Style. LONG SHOT: Cyclone Betty.
Trainer Peter Eurton is 28% the second time puts a horse on the grass. The sire Popular gets 18% winners on grass and jockey Rafael Bejarano, who is 25% with Eurton, jumps on.

Race 2: 1. #1 Rinse and Repeat (6-1), 2. Elwood J, 3. California Diamond. LONG SHOT: Upstaging the Cast.
Trainer Doug O’Neill threw this 2-year-old to the big boys in the Best Pal stakes and finished fourth. He is now back with his friends in the Cal-bred ranks and look for him to be up on engine after a poor start in the last race.

Race 3: 1. Start a Runnin, 2. Trust Your Gut, 3. American League. LONG SHOT: Blanket of Ice.

Race 4: 1. Trump Diesel, 2. Blue Navy Blue, 3. Resistanceisfutile. LONG SHOT: Gotta Get Lucky.

Race 5: 1. Shysheisnot, 2. Lady’s Lunar Luck, 3. Midnight Candy. LONG SHOT: My Sweet Afleet.

Race 6: 1. Red Apple, 2. Start to Finish, 3. You’re the Reason. LONG SHOT: Lilac Street.

Race 7: 1. #9 Paquita Coqueta (5-1) BEST BET, 2.Long Hot Summer, 3. Pretty N Cool. LONG SHOT: Crowley’s Law.
Trainer Richard Mandella does well with imports as his 24% win rate with horses first time in North America would suggest. This mare from Chile won 8 of 10 at this sprint distance on the turf down there and she has been throwing bullets in the morning. Flavien Prat, who is 20% with Mandella, rides.

Race 8: 1. Vending Machine, 2. L.A. Tower, 3. Mt. Leinster. LONG SHOT: Two Thirty Five.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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