Fair Grounds, Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, Feb. 25 (plus Fair Grounds)

Race 5 – SA
#7 Slalom (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: You can see some big form reversals at this maiden claiming level, especially if they are dropping from MSW like this filly. She showed some early speed and she got steadied hard. Trainer Phil D’Amato puts blinkers on (a 23% move) to keep mind on business.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – SA
#23 Inordinate (3-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This horse is running for the first time in the Richard Baltas barn after being with Chad Brown back East. The 5-year-old has high speed and Baltas takes the blinkers off (29% move) in order to get him to relax. If Corey Nakatani can ration his speed, it might be a good day.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – SA
#2 Uncle Billy (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Peter Miller likes to get them ready at San Luis Rey Downs in Boonsall out of the glare of clockers and this one has decent works. Miller goes first time Lasix and the sire Uncle Mo gets 16% first out winners.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – SA
#6 Call Me First (12-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Joe Herrick tried to get this gelding on the turf the first time out but it was rained off. The sire Heatseeker gets 22% first time on the turf and this 4-year-old closed some in the lane last time.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

FAIR GROUNDS

Race 5 (Colonel Power Stakes): 1. #8 Latent Heat, 2. #2 Hogy, 3. #1 Green Mask, 4. #4 American Sailor.

Race 7 (Daisy Devine Stakes): 1. #2 Cambodia, 2. #7 Believe in Bertie, 3. #8 Kitten’s Roar, 4. #5 Prado’s Sweet Ride.

Race 8 (Grade III Mineshaft Handicap): 1. #8 International Star, 2. #5 Mo Tom, 3. #2 Eagle, 4. #1 Rise Up.

Race 9 (Grade II Rachel Alexandra): 1. #3 Shane’s Girlfriend, 2. #5 Valadorna, 3. #2. Farrell, 4. Untapped.

Race 10 (Grade III Fair Grounds Handicap): 1. #8 Western Reserve, 2. #6 Enterprising, 3. #9 Oscar Nominated, 4. #2 Greengrassifyoming.

Race 11 (Grade II Risen Star): 1. #1 Girvin, 2. #3 Local Hero, 3. #4 Arklow, 4. #2 Untrapped.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Churchill Downs, Horse racing

Churchill Downs opinions for Friday, May 6

Race 7 – CD
#2 Jade Princess (8-1): Simple philosophy: If you lost to undefeated Songbird, it’s no disgrace and play next time without her in the same race. This 3-year-old filly comes out of the Santa Ysabel that Songbird won and two fillies came out of the race to win, including Land Over Sea. Trainer Bob Baffert knows Churchill Downs well and gets Victor Espinoza to ride.

Race 10 – CD
#3 Nodiac (15-1) (turf only): Trainer Phil D’Amato has shipped a string from SoCal to Kentucky this spring and is spreading his wings. This filly finished third over a yielding course and now gets the services of jockey Flavien Prat, who is 32 with D’Amato and one of the top turf riders in SoCal.

Kentucky Oaks selections
1. #13 Land Over Sea
2. #6 Mokat
3. #3 Lewis Bay
4. #2 Weep No More
Like I said before if you lost to Songbird you go to the head of the class. LAND OVER SEA lost so many times Doug O’Neill decided to go to the Fair Grounds to win a race. MOKAT finished second to Songbird in the Santa Anita Oaks in the mud.

Race 13 – CD
#6 Kiss Limit (3-1): As we said trainer Phil D’Amato has come to the Blue Grass and he stepped up to claim this colt off Mike Maker for 50K. By virtue of a cheaper maiden claiming win, this 3-year-old gets to run in a starter allowance. D’Amato is 24% first off the claim and gets that man Flavien Prat (32%) to ride.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Fair Grounds, Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, March 26 (Plus Fair Grounds)

Preview: Sort of a tough card with maiden races and the like and fields aren’t all that full. Just have to make the best of it. Plus I added the two big races from the Fair Grounds.

                                

Race 3 – SA

#2 Yana (6-1): The turf stretchout didn’t work for this mare last time so trainer Bill Spawr cuts her back on the dirt and he is 38% going from route to sprint plus he has his main man, Agapito Delagadillo aboard and they are 27%.

                   

Race 9 – SA

#5 Red Buttton (12-1): It could be a big day for the Bill Spawr barn as he brings this gelding back off a poor turf effort. Jockey Joe Talamo jumps on and he’s 24% with Spawr over the last year.

 

THE FAIR GROUNDS

 

Race 9 – FG

#8 Land Over Sea (3-1): After five straight losses to superstar Songbird, trainer Doug O’Neil has seen enough and decides to flee Southern California. This daughter of Bellamy Road has finished second to Songbird twice this year. O’Neill gets John Velazquez to ride. We’ll never get this morning-line.

                              

Race 10 – FG

#9 Dazzling Gem (12-1): Trainer Brad Cox has said he isn’t running in the Louisiana Derby for the heck of it and we believe him. This 3-year-old is a perfect 2-for-2 and while jockey Shaun Bridgmohan must work out a trip from this bad post, we think he can and the price is right.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

 

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Fair Grounds, Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, March 26 (plus Fair Grounds)

Preview: The rains hit Friday so I didn’t handicap any of the turf races because I don’t think they will stay on. If the track is wet, check out mud pedigrees. Also it’s that time of the year when trainers get horses ready for other tracks like trainer R. Gary Patrick, who stables at Indiana Downs, and has a pair of layoff horses today. Doubt if they are ready to win, but keep track.
Race 8: #5 Fancy Man (5-2): This colt finished second against better and trainer Dale Bennett drops him. Bennett is 30% third off the layoff and jockey Pablo Morales is 33% with Bennett.
Race 10: #1 Invasion Point (4-1): Just missed against better and takes a drop but jockey Daniel Centeno stays aboard.
THE FAIR GROUNDS
Race 9: #8 Land Over Sea (3-1): After five straight losses to superstar Songbird, trainer Doug O’Neil has seen enough and decides to flee Southern California. This daughter of Bellamy Road has finished second to Songbird twice this year. O’Neill gets John Velazquez to ride. We’ll never get this morning-line.
Race 10: #9 Dazzling Gem (12-1): Trainer Brad Cox has said he isn’t running in the Louisiana Derby for the heck of it and we believe him. This 3-year-old is a perfect 2-for-2 and while jockey Shaun Bridgmohan must work out a trip from this bad post, we think he can and the price is right.
@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter
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Churchill Downs, Horse racing

Churchill Downs opinions for Friday, May 1

Race 2: #11 Vouch for Kitten (8-1)

Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey like to go to the winner’s circle during Derby week and this 3-year-old filly makes her debut for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Joel Rosario. Offspring of Kitten’s Joy are 17% first time turf.

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Race 4: #5 Counterfactual (9-2)

This 3-year-old filly had a ton of trouble in her debut at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has good numbers in all areas and makes a key jockey switch to James Graham as they are 28% together.

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Race 9: #10 Power Alert (5-1)

The favorite in the Shakertown at Keeneland tired in second race off the layoff for trainer Brian Lynch, who is 26% in turf sprints. There is a ton of speed in here so we think jockey Julien Leparoux will come from off the pace and nail them at the wire. The sire Alert is 32% on the turf.

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Race 12: #4 Lunar Gaze (8-1)

Trainer Tom Amoss and jockey James Graham are looking to have a big Oaks Day. This filly pressed the pace in her debut, but had to wait at the quarter pole and lost all chance. Amoss is 31% with second-time starters.

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Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Oaks top four

#4 Eskenformoney

#12 Stellar Wind

#1 Forever Unbridled

#10 Oceanwave

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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