Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, Feb. 10

Preview: Leading rider Daniel Centeno was shut out on Thursday as seven different jockeys won the eight races. Orlando Bocachica was the only jockey to win two races. Leading trainer Gerald Bennett is in a huge slump so beware.

Race 5 – Tam
#5 Pontificate (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Closed like a freight train in his last to get second at this level. Jesus Castanon takes the mount and is 2-for-3 at the meet with trainer Jonathan Thomas. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show. EXBX 5-10-3.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Saint Lipsi Chick (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Interesting game of musical chairs in this race between jockeys Ronnie Allen Jr., Centeno and Pablo Morales. Allen ends up on this mare, which has the best Late Pace Rating from Brisnet. While others battle on front end, Allen will bide his time on the class rise. — Jeff Nahill.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show. EXBX 6-5-2.

Race 8 – Tam
#2 Tearless (12-1) ***
Our Eyes: Interesting filly hear. One of her few main track tries she won going a mile, but it was on a sloppy track. So was it the slop or the main track. We might find out today with Bocachica aboard. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – Tam
#3 Cincy Belle (9-2) ****
Our Eyes: Centeno and trainer Arnaud Delacour team up with this filly. She finished fourth against winners last time and should be ready in this spot. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Thursday, Feb. 9

Preview: As we thought, Wednesday’s card was chalky, especially when the races came off the turf due to rain on Tuesday. The first Thursday card of the meet features only 8 races. Here’s hoping they are back on the turf, but you never know. Leading jockey Daniel Centeno won twice Wednesday, once via disqualification.

Race 3 – Tam
#1 Descarado (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Takes a big drop in class in her second off the layoff, a move trainer Darien Rodriguez is 33% with. Jockey Pablo Morales keeps the mount and is 25% with Rodriguez over the last year. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show.

Race 4 – Tam
#5 Stadium (3-2) TURF ONLY *****
Our Eyes: This looks like a single in all of the exotics as Centeno rides for trainer Arnaud Delacour. Takes huge drop in class and comes out of a key race that has produced three winners from five starters so far. — Jeff Nahill.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win and 10 units to place. EXBX 5-4.

Race 8 – Tam
#9 I Dream of Lois (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Centeno has ridden this filly twice in a row, breaking her maiden over this course and then was sixth against in class here and Centeno is 2-for-5 with trainer Kathleeen Demasi at the meet. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, Feb. 8

Preview: Looks like a chalky card to me, but that’s why they run the races. Keep in mind, Tampa runs 5 days a week this month by adding Thursdays so the field sizes might be down a bit. I don’t understand the rationale but that’s the schedule. I personally would just add an extra race per day and keep the 4-day week.

Race 3 – Tam
#2 Annabella Hall (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno rides for trainer Ian Hemingway. They are a 28% combination the last year. This mare is cutting back from two turns on the turf to one turn on the dirt. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 8 units to show. EXBX 2-8-7.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Lime Beach (5-2) *****
Our Eyes: This looks like a single in all of the exotics as Centeno rides for trainer Arnaud Delacour. Has the top Brisnet Late Pace Rating. — Jeff Nahill.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win and 10 units to place.

Race 9 – Tam
#10 Gone Astray Kiss (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Centeno might have a big day as he picks up the mount on this gelding for trainer Derek Ryan, who takes the blinkers off and he’s 20% with that move. — Jeff Nahill
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Feb. 4

Preview: At the starting of the race wee, trainer Tom Proctor was tearing it up on the turf with 8 wins from 16 starters. Derek Ryan has 4 grass wins followed by Jamie Ness, Robert Smith and Arnaud Delacour with 3 wins each. On the other end of the spectrum, Peter Wasiluk is 0-for-14, Anthony Rini is 0-for-12, William Bradley 1-for-15, Christophe Clement 1-for-13 and David Hinsley 1-for-13. Keep it in mind.

Race 3: #4 Divine Change (5-2): This filly has been running on the grass and facing better, but trainer Dale Bennett wants her maiden broken so he drops her to her lowest level ever and tries 7 furlongs on the dirt. Bennett is 30% going route to sprint and he’s 47% with jockey Pablo Morales at the meet.

Race 7: #6 Great Harbour Cay (8-1): Trainer Jamie Ness and jockey Edwin Gonzalez have been tearing it up, winning 40% of their entries at the meet. At this morning-line this is too good to pass up. Ness is 22% second off the layoff.

Race 8: #10 Tether to Reality (5-1): Joan Scott is a good trainer. She got this gelding to the finish line first in his debut at 5 years old. He is bred to run long and Harlan’s Holiday gets 13% first time winners on the grass.

Race 10: #1 Celebrity Warrior (10-1): Leading jockey Daniel Centeno takes the mount on this class dropped for trainer Derek Ryan, who is 25% with horses the first time in his care.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, Jan. 25

Preview: Daniel Centeno continues to lead the jockeys’ race with 42 winners from just 128 starters (33%) so he is picking his spots and not riding every race. He is followed in the standings by Ronnie Allen Jr. (28-174), Pablo Morales (24-117) and Edwin Gonzalez (23-105). Gonzalez is picking up steam and has made in roads in trainer Jamie Ness’ barn.

Race 1 – Tam
#7 Metroliner (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Here is a perfect example of Centeno choosing his spots. He rides for trainer Frances McNeely’s small barn. This gelding finished fourth at this level and figures to improve off that effort.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 7-6-5.

Race 3 – Tam
#2 Iron Run (9-2) ***
Our Eyes: This isn’t the best group on the grounds so why not go with a first-timer? Trainer Dale Bennett is 14% with first-time staters. The sire Fort Prado gets 7% winners. Bennett is 6-for-12 with jockey Pablo Morales at the meet.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#8 Bombonero (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: Horses shipping in from Laurel have done well during the meet. This colt finished sixth in his debut over the grass at Laurel. There are a couple of good works on the sheet and jockey Edwin Gonzalez jumps aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 10 – Tam
#2 Spunsational (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Michael Wright tried to get this filly on the grass last time but it was taken off. She still finished third. Huge jockey switch to Daniel Centeno and he rides the turf to perfection.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Nov. 26 (Opening day)

Preview: The start of a new meet at Tampa Bay Downs and there is one big change to watch: three-time leading jockey Antonio Gallardo is riding in New York this winter so there will be a new top dog. Veterans Daniel Centeno (not riding today), Ronnie Allen Jr., Dean Butler and Fernando De La Criz bare watching. Newcomers to watch are Angel Cruz plus Edwin Gonzalez and Albin Jimenez. The latter two have agent Mike Moran, who was Gallardo’s agent so he has the connections. Also keep track of where the winning horses last ran because horses come from all over for this meet.

Race 4: #7 Supermans Cape (8-1): This colt has been away for more than a year and if there is any trainer can get them ready off such a layoff it’s Larry Rivelli, who is 27% with horses off a 90-plus day layoff. A son of Cape Blanco, he should enjoy the turf.

Race 6: #3 Huntstown (8-1): This gelding had a second over this turf course earlier this year and fits nicely with this group. Ran mainly against Indiana-breds this summer, but no worries about that. He has the best late pace rating from Brisnet.

Race 7: #2 Bluegrass Kid (6-1): This gelding has won over the track before and loves the 6-furlong distance with four wins. Has the top early pace rating and trainer Benny Feliciano is 29% with shippers. On top of that comes out of a key race which has produced two next out winners.

Race 11: #2 Nightbar (4-1): We’ve already extolled the virtues of trainer Larry Rivelli off a long layoff. Now add in a horse that won his first two races over this track plus the fact that the gelding comes out of a race in March that produced three next out winners.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill On Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, May 6

Preview: A decent nine-race card to start the final weekend of racing at Tampa. Trainer Joseph Arboritanza has won 5 of his last 11 entries and had three seconds over the last 14 days.

Race 1 – Tam
#2 Strong Gale (5-1) (turf only): Trainer Arnaud Delacour is 24% with horses making their first start on grass and barn rider Daniel Centeno has won 36% of his race for Delacour the last 60 days.

Race 2 – Tam
#4 Circular Thunder (8-1): This gelding broke his maiden and red-hot trainer Joseph Arboritanza runs him against winners for the first time. Jockey Ademar Santos has won 3 of his last 9 starts for the barn.

Race 7 – Tam
#7 Polygram (turf only) (6-1): This gelding comes out of a race where the first two horses to run out of it have won. Maybe for that reason trainer Ian Hemingway moves him in class against straight maidens.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, April 30

Race 1: #5 Trapnall Hall (3-1): Trainer Jason DaCosta is 29% with horses trying to repeat a win in the claiming ranks. He was also 39% with dirt routers last year at this track.

                              

Race 4: #1 Little John W (6-1): Trainer Trainer Reid Nagle has done a good job of spotting his horses with a 7-for-12 record at the meet. He ships this colt up from Gulfstream Park and drops him in class. Jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. jumps on.

 

Race 6: #6 Believe Indeed (turf only) (6-1): Jockey Daniel Centeno could have ridden a horse for Christophe Clement but decides to jump back on this filly trained by Arnaud Delacour. She ran a good race on the turf last time and figures to only improve in this spot.

 

Race 9: #7 Trousseau (4-1): This race is begging to be won by a first-timer as those who have run aren’t the greatest. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is 21% with first-time starters and he has his main man Daniel Centeno (30% combination) aboard.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 27

Preview: It’s a 10-race card, but not an overabundance of horses. Rain was forecast on Monday so we’ll have to see if they stay on the turf. Trainer Dennis Ward won twice on Sunday and so did leading jockey Antonio Gallardo.

 

Race 3 – Tam

#4 Stately Defence (5-1): This mare has been claimed in two of her last three races. John Rigattieri gives her a try and he is 32% first off the claim. He gets jockey Daniel Centeno to ride and they are 26% over the last year.

                              

Race 5 – Tam

#2 Dramatic Entry (12-1): Trainer John Vinson is 40% when taking a horse from the turf to the dirt like this gelding. He is also dropping him in class plus jockey Manoel Cruz jumps on and they are 2-for-8 at the meet.

 

Race 6 – Tam

#2 Mini Channel (turf only) (5-2): Trainer Arnaud Delacour showed speed last time in a MSW and now drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. Big jockey switch to Daniel Centeno, who has ridden 30% winners for this barn this meet.

 

Race 10 – Tam

#5 Gold Value (10-1): Trainer Joseph Arboritanza is a master with cutbacks and moves this filly goes from a route to a sprint. Jockey Willie Martinez has his only two wins at the meet for Arboritanza.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, April 22

BuPreview: After an 0-for-7 on Wednesday, leading jockey Antonio Gallardo is 2 for his last 23. Jockey Scott Spieth won twice on Wednesday. Jockey Fernando De La Cruz is riding at Indiana Grand.

 

Race 5 – Tam

#7 Rasta Friends (8-1): Trainer Dennis Ward is good at moving horses up in class, with a 21% winning percentage when he does it. Jockey Vicky Baze will ride.

                              

Race 6 – Tam

#7 Steve Came Thru (6-1): Trainer Kathleen O’Connell drops this gelding in class and cuts him back from two turns to 7 furlongs. Jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. jumps back on and he has had success with this 5-year-old earlier in the meet.

 

Race 8 – Tam

#9 Dealingatthegate (6-1): Trainer Edward Williams has good numbers at Tampa with stretching a horse out for the first like he is doing with this gelding. Good grass rider Daniel Centeno jumps, which is a positive sign.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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