Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 26

Race 4 – Tam
#6 Adios Ashley (15-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Jockey Pablo Morales has proven to be a master on the turf this meet. This filly has the second-best speed figure at the distance and the switch to Morales might bring in this long shot..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-7-2.

Race 6 – Tam
#8 Tizk Tizk (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno rides this gelding for the first tome. There are a couple of other firsts like going two turns and going long on the grass, but with Centeno it’s all good at the price.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-7-3.

Race 7 – Tam
#6 Cool Seas (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Another big jockey change here to Centeno. This filly comes out of a key race where the first two runners to come back have both won. #2 Commissioned is in the same boat but more upside to Cool Seas.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-2.

Race 8 – Tam
#6 Martini Glass (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly has never won on the turf but she hasn’t been disgraced either. Trainer Keith Nations is 30% third off the layoff and the filly comes out of a key race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-8-10.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Electro Peg (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Claimed last time out by Dale Bennett, who likely was looking at this spot. Centeno takes over on this closer..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-6-5.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Sunday, April 23

Race 4 – Tam
#6 Spring Me (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: This mare has won at this distance at the meet and gets a jockey change to Samy Camacho. Trainer James Gullick is 23% with sprinters. Worth a shot at the price.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – Tam
#2 Nano’s Crown (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading trainer Gerald Bennett has two in this race and I’ll with the longer choice with leading jockey Daniel Centeno. Bennett is 23% third off the layoff and the filly is coming out of a key race with three next out winners.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-7.

Race 9 – Tam
#6 Animal Trick (7-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Jockey Edwin Gonzalez might have hit the front too early last time at this level so maybe today a more patient ride is needed. Gonzalez is 2-for-8 with trainer Kathleen O’Connell.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-1-2.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, April 22

Race 1 – Tam
#8 King Stormy (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This colt takes a major class drop from MSW at Gulfstream Park to maiden claimer at Tampa. Add in the addition of leading jockey Daniel Centeno and you have a strong choice here.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Patient Drama (3-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno jumps on which is a huge upgrade over his previous rider. Stays at the same class level so anything close to last time puts this mare in the winner’s circle.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – Tam
#9 Louisianahtosauce (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly has been running on the turf, but takes a drop in class plus returns to the dirt. Trainer Robert Raymound is 25% when dropping a horse two or more levels.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#5 Bold Response (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This gelding broke his maiden in front-running style last time and don’t see a reason jockey Scott Spieth won’t try the same thing. Spieth is 3-for-6 with trainer Joseph Minieri with a positive ROI. Step in class, but might go back-to-back.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, April 14

Preview: Hope some of you had out $18 winner Wild Winter on Wednesday. Living here on the West Coast, I overslept and missed it but that’s life. Watch for smaller fields, trainers leaving and jockeys leaving as the meet winds down until after the day after the Kentucky Derby. Don’t forget no racing on Easter Sunday.

Race 5 – Tam
#2 Oxford Street (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Coming off a win against easier and jockey Daniel Centeno jumps ship, but this gelding unleashed quite a late burst and if he does that again here on the turf he should be right there.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-6-8.

Race 8 – Tam
#6 Moonlit Sonnet (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: All three of this mare’s wins were on the turf so not sure why she was on the dirt in her last. But that race has proven to be a key race with three next out winners so let’s hope the return to the green is the key.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-3.

Race 9 – Tam
#7 That’s Angelina (5-2) TURF ONLY *****
Our Eyes: This filly looks like a single to me. Gets a huge jock switch to Centeno, who should put her in the right spot to win.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win, 8 units to place and 10 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 12

Race 1 – Tam
#3 Wild Winter (4-1) ****

Our Eyes: Has been muddling along at long sprints so trainer Ron Potts cuts him back. Potts is 21% with horses coming off a 46 to 90-day layoff. This gelding is coming out of a key race that has produced two next out winners.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 3 – Tam
#10 Peanutbutter Shake (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding is making his second career start on the drop and trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is 25% with horses in their second career start. The 4-year-old is also coming out of a key race, too.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#9 Commissionette (8-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: A little surprised trainer Ben Colebrook is still here because by this time he’s usally at Keeneland. This claimer is moving up in class but returning to the turf and gets top grass rider Daniel Centeno.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#2 Luckystrikedelcoco (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: This mare makes her second start off the layoff and drops in class for trainer Derek Ryan, who gets Centeno to ride. She likes to press the pace so look for Centeno to gun from the gate.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, March 29

Race 4 – Tam
#5 Ambassador Sweet (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This filly gets a key jock change to leader rider Daniel Centeno. She showed good late pace and will move up a class level here on the grass. Remember small barn, top jockey.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 5.

Race 6 – Tam
#4 Dramatic Entry (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding finished second in his first race since last June. Trainer John Vinson is 24% second off the layoff and he’s 43% with jockey Jesus Castanon at the meet.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 5-3-8 with 4.

Race 8 – Tam
#1 Hint of Mary (7-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Christophe Clement has two horses in here and this is the one Centeno stays. The filly had all kinds of trouble at the start but rallied to finish fourth in a BTL race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 10-9-7-6 with 1.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Hofkapelle (8-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: This is the only first-time starter in this race. Trainer Eoin Harty wins at 9% with FTS and the sire Marsh Side has no first time turf winners, but just have a feeling Harty knows something with this 4-year-old filly.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 4-6-10.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, March 24

Preview: Not sure what the condition of the turf course will be as rain was possible on Thursday. Check for changes. Daniel Centeno and Edwin Gonzalez continue to ride well.

Race 2 – Tam
#4 Phenix (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Jason DaCosta is 40% when he moves a horse from a sprint to a route back to a sprint like this filly. Throw out the last race and look for improvement here.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 2-3 with 4.

Race 5 – Tam
#1 Johnny Bear (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Ashlee Brnjas is 39% when going from dirt to turf. She is 29% with jockey Pablo Morales. Interesting race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 3-4-6 with 1.

Race 6 – Tam
#2 Bright Blue (30-1) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Juan Gotera took over training and this gelding has been improved. The 5-year-old is coming out of a key race that has produced three winners. Jockey Samy Camacho is 3-for-7 with Gotera at the meet at big odds.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX all with 2.

Race 7 – Tam
#8 United Song (10-1) ***
Our Eyes: Like we’ve said before jockey Daniel Centeno doesn’t have to ride every race so this first-time starter must be live and at these odds worth a shot.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 4-6-7 with 8.

Race 9 – Tam
#7 Unfazed (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Arnaud Delacour has a pair in here and no doubt Centeno had is choice and takes this 4-year-old filly which finished second in her first race off the layoff. Delacour is 22% second off the layoff and 26% with Centeno.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 7-4 (both Delacour)

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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