Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Saturday, July 29

Preview: Favorites continue to take it on the chin eight days into the meet, but you know at some time the ride will turn, especially at Del Mar. Last Saturday, there was a rally wide bias after the racing from Friday night so watch the first race carefully.

FIRST RACE: 1. Jungle Warfare, 2. Ayacara, 3. Tatters to Riches. LONG SHOT: Blended Citizen.
Tatters to Riches is a $1 million baby trained by Jeff Mullins. The son Union Rags had been training lights out, but anything can happened the first time. Mullins is also just one for his last 15 with first-time starters. Jungle Warfare costs $300,000 and finished third in his debut. He has been working well and improvement should come today with apprentice Evil Roman in the irons.

SECOND RACE: 1. Mama’s Sugar, 2. Tiz Delightful, 3. Fabulous Lady. LONG SHOT: Zanab.

THIRD RACE: 1. G.G. Ryder, 2. He Will, 3. Incredible Luck. LONG SHOT: My Italian Babbo.
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer would see to hold all the cards in this Cal-bred stakes with the top two horses. Can you say exacta box?

For the reminder of my picks go to:
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sd-sp-jeff-nahills-delmar-selections-saturday-july-29-story.html

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, March 31

Race 4 – SA
#4 Settle Down Eileen (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Has been away since October and ends up in the Bill Spawr barn. Spawr is 2-for-3 with maiden claimers and 50% going from MSW to maiden claimers. Gary Stevens rides and he’s picky on who he rides.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 4.

Race 6 – SA
#1 Generous Pour (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Craig Dollase is 29% second off the claim. This has two career wins on dirt but her last three were on the turf. Maybe she is just a dirt horse.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – SA
#3 Accountability (10-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: This colt has a lot going for him as he goes two turns for the first time. The 3-year-old comes out of a key race and trainer Rafael Becerra is 19% with horses off 90-day or longer rest plus the sire Acclamation is 17% with horses first time on the turf.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#7 Jordana (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Scott Hansen is 18% when he sends a horse around two turns for the first time. He also puts blinkers on and this filly has the best Brisnet Late Pace Rating.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, March 30

Race 1 – SA
#2 Vibe (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: This 3-year-old has been gelded by trainer Keith Desormeeaux since his last race and has been given 3 months off to grow up. Look for an improve effort.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 2.

Race 4 – SA
#2 Icona (10-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly is going two turns for the first time and she is bred for it on the bottom side. She is coming out of a key race that has produced two winners so far and trainer Phil D’Amato is 20% going from sprint to route..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 2.

Race 5 – SA
#2 Image of Joplin (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Bill Spawr has had a big meet so far (34%). He’s 24% first off the claim and he’s 23% with jockey Martin Pedroza.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#1 Felina (12-1) ***
Our Eyes: Big jock switch here to Joe Talamo and this filly has been away since October. She has been working well for her return.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Feb. 10

Preview: There is an 80 to 100% per chance of rain in Arcadia today so I don’t see a reason to look at the two turf races.

Race 6 – SA
#7 Moments Notiz (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Bill Spawr is 7-for-16 at the meet. This takes a class drop and should love a wet track with a 9-3-2-2 record. Jockey Agapito Delgadillo keeps the mount and is 17% with Spawr at Santa Anita.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#6 Hard Arch (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: Finished third over a wet/fast track last time, but the key here today is the stretch out. Trainer Vladimir Cerin is 22% with horses going sprint-sprint-route and he gets Kent Desormeaux to ride this son of Archarcharch.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Thursday, Dec. 1

Preview: Jockey Flavien Prat will miss the remainder of the meet after being thrown from a mount on Sunday. Prat saw blood in his urine and doctors told him not to ride again until Dec. 26, opening day at Santa Anita. There will be plenty of jock changes Thursday and Friday so pay attention.

Sorry late again.

Race 1: #6 Easter Fever (2-1) BEST BET, 2. Ron Sophia, 3. Princess Kendra. LONG SHOT: Q’Viva.
Could be a single on most Picks 5s. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 22% first off the claim and 2-for-5 when dropping off the claim. Even with the drop, if D’Amato wins and the 4-year-old gets claimed he makes a nice profit. This 4-year-old has has good early speed.

Race 2: 1. T. Montana, 2. Sorry Erik, 3. Beantown Noys. LONG SHOT: Mizzen Me.

Race 3: 1. Nat’s Nation, 2. Malko, 3. Trust Your Gut. LONG SHOT: Motoring Around.

Race 4: #6 Princess Marie (6-1), 2. Big Adventure, 3. War Factor. LONG SHOT: Dumont.
This filly has had trouble in her last two starts and now she goes two turns for the first time. Trainer Kristin Mulhall is 24% when she has two sprints into a route. Mulhall had secured leading jockey Prat before his injury so that’s a good sign.

Race 5: 1. Halo Darling, 2. Conquest So True, 3. Sid the Squid. LONG SHOT: Flaming Vixen.

Race 6: 1. Alright Alright, 2. Blameitonthelaw, 3. Indavidualist. LONG SHOT: Act.

Race 7: 1. Guns Loaded, 2. Siletn Bird, 3. Conquest Cobra. LONG SHOT: El Huerfano.

Race 8: #7 Bona Fide Image (5-1), 2. Another Girl Alma, 3. Bissou Bissou. LONG SHOT: Rally Back.
Trainer Bill Spawr isn’t know for his work with 2-year-olds but this filly could be sitting on a win after trouble in her last race. Spawr is 21% with maiden claimers and 18% with beaten favorites. He also has a good late kick and jockey Tyler Baze keeps the mount.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, Sept. 3

Race 1: 1. Czarina, 2. Adorable, 3. Settle Down Eileen. LONG SHOT: Online Request.

Race 2: 1. #9 Big Energy (10-1), 2. Special Story, 3. Basinca. LONG SHOT: Seattle Boom.

This gelding broke his maiden on the front end and then fell apart against winners. Despite that trainer Terry Knight ships him down from Northern California. Knight is 25% with shippers and beaten favorites. Kent Desormeaux jumps on.

Race 3: 1. #3 Gunslinger (5-1) BEST BET, 2. Tribal Jewel, 3. Indygo Holiday. LONG SHOT: J Serino.

This gelding has won twice over this track by more than 30 lengths. Last time he started from the outside post and still got second.. He moves to the inside and trainer Bill Spawr still moves him up in class.

Race 4: 1. Matter of Luck, 2. Moonie, 3. Later My Love. LONG SHOT: Tuscany Beauty.

Raced 5: 1. Little Nati, 2. Jilly, 3. Viva Vegas. LONG SHOT: Glory and Power.

Race 6: 1. #7 Farley (10-1), 2. Farley, 2. Big Score, 3. Bowies Hero. LONG SHOT: Irish Goodbye.

This is the toughest race on the card, 2-year-olds going a mile on the turf. This colt showed huge improvement went put on the turf, just missing the win. Has tactical speed, which jockey Mario Gutierrez will have to use.

Race 7: 1. Mama’s Sugar, 2. Seaside Glory, 3. Yana. long shot: rOSA bRAVA.

Race 8: 1. Iwobi, 2. Kimbear, 3. Serve Me a Double. LONG SHOT: Spectacular One.

Race 9: 1. #7 Union Strike (15-1), 2. American Cleopatra, 3. Morganite. LONG SHOT: Miss Southern Miss.

This is the big one of the day: the Grade I Del Mar Debutante. Of course, Bob Baffert has a pair in here and it’s a tough field. This filly was 7-2 in her debut, favored over impressive winner American Cleopatra, but got off to a poor start, but she came running down the lane. She has talent. The question is does she need more seasoning but the price is right.

Race 10: 1. Tribal Fighter, 2. Rye, 3. It’s The Ice. LONG SHOT: Barhanpour.

Race 11: 1. Picture Tube, 2. Gavin Streetsense, 3. Bernardjfortunato. LONG SHOT: Little Mustard.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar selections for Saturday, Aug. 27

Preview: The turf rails will be at 12 feet today so closers should have a shot. Jockeys Flavien Prat (16-for-69) and Rafael Bejarano (10-56) lead the way on the grass. Jockeys to avoid (maybe) are Stewart Elliott 1-for-26, Mike Smith 1-for-25 and Martin Garcia 0-21.

Race 1: 1. #3 Where’s Bubba (6-1) BEST BET, 2. Boompa, 3. Tomasino. LONG SHOT: Exemplar.

Trainer Bill Spawr is good a changing a horses distance. He is 36% when going from a route to a sprint and even more impressive when going sprint-route-sprint he is 56%.

Race 2: 1. Above Board, 2. Latest Craze, 3. Counturluckystars. LONG SHOT: Cavalry.

Race 3: 1. Masochistic, 2. Indexical, 3. Vyjack.

Race 4: 1. Vartan, 2. Dream It Do It, 3. Moose Skowron. LONG SHOT: Dynamic Scoring.

Race 5: 1. #3 Lauren’s Export (12-1), 2. Dust It, 3. Leveler. LONG SHOT: Anythingcanhappen.

Trainer Carla Gaines is 23% when debuting a horse on the turf and this daughter of Lonhro has three straight big works coming into the race. Lonhro is 13% with first-time turfers.

Race 6: 1. Hell On Heels, 2. Krisie’s Heart, 3. Passionate Emotion. LONG SHOT: Dragon Flowerr.

Race 7: 1. Nodiac, 2. Do the Dance, 3. How Unusual. LONG SHOT: Patriotic Diamond.

Race 8: 1. #5 How About Zero (6-1), 2. Miss Sunset, 3. You’re Late. LONG SHOT: I’ll Be Around.

We have seen trainer Doug O’Neill do this before: start a first-time maiden in a stakes race and he has won. This is a daughter of Square Eddie, who gets 16% winners first time out and barn jockey Mario Gutierrez takes the ride.

Race 9: 1. #8 Hansen Tale Blues (10-1), 2. Life’s Blessings, 3. Lovely Linda. LONG SHOT: Soul Singer.

Trainer Victor Garcia is 12% with first-time starters and he always seems to cash a bomber for his father King Juan Garcia, who races under the name Lucky Charm Stable. This son of Hansen has been training steadily and the sire gets 14% first time out. Follow the money.

Race 10: 1. American Aristocat, 2. Temple Keys, 3. Anatolian. LONG SHOT: Over Par.

Good luck

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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