Horse racing, Pimlico

Pimlico Race Course stakes opinions for Friday, May 19

RACE 5 (Grade III Dupont Distaff): 1. #2 She’s a Warrior (12-1), 2. #1 Power of Snunner (8-1), 3. 3. #4 Terra Promessa (6-5). LONG SHOT: #5 Winter (15-1).
Lookie here first stakes race and a SoCal shipper in She’s a Warrior. She chased Songbird last year, was give a break and ran great in her comeback. Gary Stevens isn’t going to travel for the heck or it and neither is trainer Peter Eurton. Power of Snunner has jockey Mike Smith.’Nuff said.

RACE 7 (Grade III Pimlico Special): 1. #6 Shaman Ghost (4-5), 2. #10 Fellowship, 3. #Noble Bird (8-1). LONG SHOT: #1 Dolphus (8-1).

RACE 8 (The Hilltop): 1. #5 Compelled (3-1), 2. #1 Dance Queen (8-1), 3. #3 Victory to Victory (5-2). LONG SHOT: #6 My Sweet Stella (15-1).

RACE 9 (Grade III Miss Preakness): 1. #4 Crabcakes (12-1), 2. #2 My Miss Chiff (15-1), 3. #3 Stormy Embrace (20-1). LONG SHOT: #6 Vertical Oak (10-1).

RACE 10 (Jim McKay Turf Sprint): 1. #10 Richard’s Boy (4-1), 2. #4 Pay Any Price, 3. #2 Amelia’s Wild Ride (6-1). LONG SHOT: #14 Platnium Prince (12-1).
Trainer Peter Miller ships East and puts speed jockey Paco Lopez aboard. Look for a wire job.

RACE 11 (Grade Ii Black-Eyed Susan): 1. #2 Tapa Tapa Tapa (8-1), 2. #5 Lights of Medina (8-1), 3. #3 Dancing Rags (8-1). LONG SHOT: #6 Corporate Queen (15-1).
The highlight of the day as the 3-year-old fillies with the track. Not sure why Union Strike from the Mick Ruis barn isn’t here, but that’s life. Tapa Tapa Tapa won at Tampa and finished fourth at Oaklawn Park.Might be ready for big effort.

RACE 13 (Skipat): 1. #1 Lovable Lady (10-1), 2. #5 Chanteline (7-2), 3. #9 Clipthecouponannie (9-5). LONG SHOT: #3 Absatootly (12-1).

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, May 18

Preview: Didn’t have a good week last week mainly because didn’t follow my own advice of sticking with Peter Miller. The question now is whether Miller will cool off or stay hot? I do know with Del Mar two months away he will be ready for that meet.

Race 1 – SA
#6 Kennedie Sky (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: I guess we’re going to test the Miller question right off the bat. This mare has a good Brisnet Late Pace Rating and Miller is 19% third off the layoff. Good turf rider Brice Blanc is aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 1-6.

Race 4 – SA
#3 Oopper Wallah (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Ron Ellis is 39% second off the claim and this colt is running below his claimed level. Joe Talamo rides and he’s 21% with Ellis.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. Back wheel exacta 4-5 with 6.

Race 7 – SA
#1 Finallygotabentley (10-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer claimed this gelding last time for $16,000 and he is 25% first off the claim. Jockey Flavien Prat jumps on and he’s 28% with Hollendorfer.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 1-2-3-7 with 5.

Race 8 – SA
#1 Sally Simpson (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This filly drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and comes out of a key race that has produced two winners from three starters.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 1-9-2.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Sunday, May 14

Preview: Happy Mother’s Day. I’m in a bit of a slump, but here’s hoping to get out of it today. Got burned in Saturday’s last race by a wide post. I should have done a better job on that race because long shot exacta figured upon re-examination.

Race 1 – SA
#25 Excessive Kid (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Moving up in class off a second-place finish, but Kent Desormeaux stays aboard and it looks like he can compete here.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – SA
#6 Dreamy Gal (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: I’m going with the longer price on the Phil D’Amato hidden entry. This filly runs here second race in the States and is coming out of a key race and has been training well.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. Back wheel exacta 4-5 with 6.

Race 6 – SA
#5 Mo’vette (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Dropping into a claimer for the first time and is coming out of a key race. Has been working well since last race and if she runs back to that maiden breaker at Del Mar, she will be right there..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 1-2-3-7 with 5.

Race 8 – SA
#10 Skelton Pass (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: John Sadler tried to get him on the turf in the last but it was taken off. This is a GRASS horse and numbers tell you that. Look for a big improvement off last.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – SA
#9 Blushing Ann (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: There are no world beaters in this bottom level maiden claimer so why not go with a first-timer? I love Street Boss first time out (18%) and trainer Jack Carava puts good gate jockey Martin Pedroza aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, May 13

Preview: As I’ve said before work some times gets in the way of handicapping so that’s why this is late.

Race 1 – SA
#2 Desert Law (10-1), #5 Miracle March (10-1), #8 Hollywood Square (8-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: I don’t see any world beater in this maiden race so I think any of these first-time starters can get the job done. Check the odds. Maybe an exacta box is in order.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 2 – SA
#6 Gold Shot (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Taking a shot with this colt making his first start for trainer Richard Baltas, who also has Pioneer Lad in here. This 3-year-old has been training well for his comeback and jockey Corey Nakatani jumps on and he’s 29% with Baltas.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. Back wheel exacta 3-5-7-8 with 6.

Race 6 – SA
#8 Brickhouse (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Bruce Headley doesn’t send out many short first-time starters and he wins 29% of the time with first-timers. Works are good and jockey Tiago Pereira is 29% with Headley..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – SA
#12 Liar’s Smoker (8-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This is a bad post, but good turf rider Nakatani should be able to work out a good trip for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Good works off a win and layoff..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Friday, May 12

Race 2 – SA
#8 Stop the Violence (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: This 2-year-old race features a couple of tough horses from trainers Eddie Turman and John Brocklebank, but I’m going with Peter Miller, who knows how to get them ready at San Luis Rey Downs. Miller is 24% with first-time starters. This is a son of Violence, a first crop sire who already has a first out winner.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 3 – SA
#5 American League (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: I don’t know what it is but I always felt like this gelding underachieved under trainer Mike McCarthy. The 4-year-old was claimed by Jeff Bonde (22% first off the claim) and he gets Tyler Baze to ride.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – SA
#3 Lost in Lexington (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Phil D’Amato claimed this filly in March and must have had turf in mind. He is 21% first off the claim.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 3-4.

Race 8 – SA
#10 Set You Free (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Mike Puype has two horses in here and I think jockey Stewart Elliott got a choice of mounts and he stayed on this filly. Puype is 24% from going from MSW to maiden claiming.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 10-5

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Thursday, May 11

Race 3 – SA
#4 Kristi’s Copilot (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding has three wins over this track and gets weight from several in here. Tyler Baze is riding well enough. Make sure to check the main track the first few races after the weekend rains.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 5 – SA
#4 No Silent (6-1) ***
Our Eyes: This 8-year-old gelding used to win some graded stakes down the hill, but has been in a slump. He’s been working OK and jockey Flavien Prat stays aboard. I’m willing to give him one more shot.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – SA
#2 Leveler (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Phil D’Amato has been on fire lately. He wins at 21% on the turf and he’s 18% with layoff horses.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-1-3

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Churchill Downs, Horse racing

RACE 6 (Grade I Humana Distaff): 1. #3 Mines and Magic (15-1), 2. #5 Finest City (8-5), 3. #6 Lightstream (5-1). Long shot: #1 Super Humor (20-1).

Mines and Magic is a perfect 3-for-3 on the surface, but has never run on a wet track. Finest City is coming off a loss to Vale Dori at Santa Anita.

Race 7 (Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile): 1. #6 Roca Rojo (3-1), 2. #4 Believe in Bertie (6-1), 3. #2 Miss Temple City (9-5). Long shot: #8 Prize Exhibit (12-1).

Roca Rojo almost won the Matriarch at Del Mar but lose by a nose to Miss Temple City. Time to turn the tables.

Race 8 (Grade III Pat Day Mile): 1. #4 Uncontested (5-1), 2. #5 No Dozing (5-1), 3. #8 Wild Shot (4-1). Long shot: #11) Sonic Mule (10-1).

If there is a big race, I want jockey Mike Smith aboard and he rides this 3-year-old for the first time here.

Race 9 (Grade II American Turf): 1. #10 Good Samaritan (5-1), 2. #9 Made You Look (6-1), 3. #2 Big Score (6-1). Long shot: #6 Arklow (12-1).

How much of a bog will the turf course be by the time of this race? Good Samaritan finished third in the BC Juvenile Turf and four next out winners have been produced from that race.

Race 10 (Grade II Churchill Downs): 1. #8 El Kabeir (6-1), 2. #1 Awesome Slew (4-1), 3. #12 Denman’s Call (8-1). Long shot: #3 Schivarelli (20-1).

El Kabeir is coming out of a key race at Gulfstream where the first three runners have all come back to win.

Race 11 (Grade I Woodword Reserve Turf Classic): 1. #4 Conquest Panthera (8-1), 2. #6 Bal a Bali (6-1), 3. Divisidero (4-1). LONG SHOT: #3 Oscar Nominated (15-1).

RACE 12 (Grade I Kentucky Derby): 1. #12 Sonneteer (50-1), 2. #8 Hence (15-1), 3. #18 Gormley (15-1), 4. #19 Practical Joke (20-1). Long shot: #9 Irap (20-1).
The Derby preps this year have been confounding to say the least and what kind of track there will be today just adds another hard factor to handicap. So in a wide open year why not go with a long shot? Sonneteer is still a maiden, but maybe the richest maiden in the country. His two come-from-behind runs at Oaklawn Park just might set him up for today’s 1 1/4-mile race. I know this much Keith Desormeaux knows how to train and his horses love the mud. Jockey Kent Desormeaux will have to give a way better ride than he did last time in the Arkansas Derby. I thought he waited too long. Hence comes out of the Sunland Derby, which has proven to be a productive race. Florent Geroux can ride and I know Steve Asmussen can train. Gormley is the best in the West and Practical Joke maybe a “wise guy” horse.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

 

Churchill Downs opinions for Saturday, May 6 (Kentucky Derby Day)

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