Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay opinions for Saturday, April 15

Race 5 – Tam
#4 Beach Splash (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This mare has plenty of early speed and the drop in class will help. Jockey Edwin Gonzalez is 2-for-5 at the meet with trainer Jason DaCosta.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – Tam
#2 Gone Astray Kiss (10-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno jumps back on this gelding after helping the 3-year-old break his maiden at 7 furlongs..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#5 Lucy in the Sky (20-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: Going to take a shot here with this first-timer. Pablo Morales has ridden the turf as well as anyone this meet and this is a daughter of Caleb’s Posse, which gets 25% winner first time on the green stuff.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 4 units to place and 5 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, April 14

Preview: Hope some of you had out $18 winner Wild Winter on Wednesday. Living here on the West Coast, I overslept and missed it but that’s life. Watch for smaller fields, trainers leaving and jockeys leaving as the meet winds down until after the day after the Kentucky Derby. Don’t forget no racing on Easter Sunday.

Race 5 – Tam
#2 Oxford Street (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Coming off a win against easier and jockey Daniel Centeno jumps ship, but this gelding unleashed quite a late burst and if he does that again here on the turf he should be right there.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-6-8.

Race 8 – Tam
#6 Moonlit Sonnet (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: All three of this mare’s wins were on the turf so not sure why she was on the dirt in her last. But that race has proven to be a key race with three next out winners so let’s hope the return to the green is the key.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-3.

Race 9 – Tam
#7 That’s Angelina (5-2) TURF ONLY *****
Our Eyes: This filly looks like a single to me. Gets a huge jock switch to Centeno, who should put her in the right spot to win.
Jeff’s Playbook: 5 units to win, 8 units to place and 10 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 12

Race 1 – Tam
#3 Wild Winter (4-1) ****

Our Eyes: Has been muddling along at long sprints so trainer Ron Potts cuts him back. Potts is 21% with horses coming off a 46 to 90-day layoff. This gelding is coming out of a key race that has produced two next out winners.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 3 – Tam
#10 Peanutbutter Shake (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding is making his second career start on the drop and trainer M. Anthony Ferraro is 25% with horses in their second career start. The 4-year-old is also coming out of a key race, too.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#9 Commissionette (8-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: A little surprised trainer Ben Colebrook is still here because by this time he’s usally at Keeneland. This claimer is moving up in class but returning to the turf and gets top grass rider Daniel Centeno.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 8 – Tam
#2 Luckystrikedelcoco (8-1) ***
Our Eyes: This mare makes her second start off the layoff and drops in class for trainer Derek Ryan, who gets Centeno to ride. She likes to press the pace so look for Centeno to gun from the gate.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 6

Race 1 – Tam
#7 Care About This (9-2) ****
Our Eyes: This is a lower-level maiden claimer and anything can happen so why not go with a first-time starter? This filly is by Soaring Empire, who gets 11% first-time winners.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 4 – Tam
#3 Ibetcha (3-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This gelding showed an improved effort in his second start and takes a drop in class. It should be enough against this crew with jockey Edwin Gonzalez aboard.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#7 Silver Magnolia (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Justin Johns is 24% first off the claim like this filly. Ronnie Allen Jr. jumps on and he’s 27% with Johns.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – Tam
#3 Whole (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding is a perfect 2-for-2 in his career and they have been on the dirt. Now Kathleen O’Connell tries two turns on the grass. She is 16% off this kind of layoff and the sire Blame is 12% with first-time turfers plus O’Connell is 21% at the meet with Allen.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, April 1

Race 3 – Tam
#4 Guchi Gold (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This mare is coming out of a key race where the first two runners to come back have each won. She finished third in that race as the 2-1 favorite. She stays at the same level and trainer Kathleen Demasi is 19% with horses third off the layoff.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 4-5-7.

Race 6 – Tam
#4 Waitingforaspark (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: I’m determined to hit one of these Anthony Margotta first-timers. Margotta hits at 42% with firsters and the sire Bodemeister hits at 13% first time out.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – Tam
#1 Mia’s Gusto (15-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: The sire J P’s Gusto usually gets some fast offspring and he wins at 20% first time out on the grass. Trainer Tim Padilla wins at a decent 12% first time out so let’s hope this one guns from the inside slot.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 10 – Tam
#6 Kentucky Breeze (10-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: The combination of trainer Juan Gotera and jockey Samy Camacho have won 4 of 12 at the meet and some at nice prices. This 3-year-old going first time around two turns and first time turf could be another on of those bombers.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, March 31

Race 2 – Tam
#2 Saratoga Ransom (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Barbara McBride is 31% when dropping a horse two or more levels. This filly keeps leading rider Daniel Centeno.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 2.

Race 7 – Tam
#3 ZouZou (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Almost got there last time but came up short. She comes back at same level with Centeno keeping the mount.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Quiet Sea (4-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Malcolm Pierce is 23% with horses in the second race of their careers. This colt finished third in debut after getting steadied. A clean trip might be the answer.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, March 29

Race 4 – Tam
#5 Ambassador Sweet (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This filly gets a key jock change to leader rider Daniel Centeno. She showed good late pace and will move up a class level here on the grass. Remember small barn, top jockey.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 5.

Race 6 – Tam
#4 Dramatic Entry (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding finished second in his first race since last June. Trainer John Vinson is 24% second off the layoff and he’s 43% with jockey Jesus Castanon at the meet.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 5-3-8 with 4.

Race 8 – Tam
#1 Hint of Mary (7-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Christophe Clement has two horses in here and this is the one Centeno stays. The filly had all kinds of trouble at the start but rallied to finish fourth in a BTL race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 10-9-7-6 with 1.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Hofkapelle (8-1) TURF ONLY ***
Our Eyes: This is the only first-time starter in this race. Trainer Eoin Harty wins at 9% with FTS and the sire Marsh Side has no first time turf winners, but just have a feeling Harty knows something with this 4-year-old filly.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 4-6-10.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, March 25

Preview: Just a note on Sunday. It’s my fantasy baseball draft day so no opinions. Good luck.

Race 1 – Tam
#4 Media’s Delite (20-1) ***
Our Eyes: In these lower level races, anything can happen so why not take a shot with a bomber? This 5-year-old is getting stretched out trainer Anthony Pecoraro, who is 23% first route and 26% when going sprint-sprint-route.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win. Back wheel exacta all with 4.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Mr Lightning Boy (9-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Bennyiciano is 35% first off the claim and this one is moving up in class so he must be confident
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 5-3 with 1.

Race 7 – Tam
#10 Wise Mac (20-1) TURF OFF ***
Our Eyes: Time to take another shot. Look way back in this gelding’s form and he ran on the grass at Parx in an effort that might be good here.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX all with 10.

Race 10 – Tam
#12 Jammi Gemi (12-1) ***
Our Eyes: This filly drops into a maiden claimer forst the first time. She showed speed against MSW types. Lots of unknowns here with a lot of first-time starters so it’s wide open.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, March 24

Preview: Not sure what the condition of the turf course will be as rain was possible on Thursday. Check for changes. Daniel Centeno and Edwin Gonzalez continue to ride well.

Race 2 – Tam
#4 Phenix (8-1) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Jason DaCosta is 40% when he moves a horse from a sprint to a route back to a sprint like this filly. Throw out the last race and look for improvement here.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 2-3 with 4.

Race 5 – Tam
#1 Johnny Bear (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Ashlee Brnjas is 39% when going from dirt to turf. She is 29% with jockey Pablo Morales. Interesting race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 3-4-6 with 1.

Race 6 – Tam
#2 Bright Blue (30-1) ***
Our Eyes: Trainer Juan Gotera took over training and this gelding has been improved. The 5-year-old is coming out of a key race that has produced three winners. Jockey Samy Camacho is 3-for-7 with Gotera at the meet at big odds.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX all with 2.

Race 7 – Tam
#8 United Song (10-1) ***
Our Eyes: Like we’ve said before jockey Daniel Centeno doesn’t have to ride every race so this first-time starter must be live and at these odds worth a shot.
Jeff’s Playbook: 3 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EX 4-6-7 with 8.

Race 9 – Tam
#7 Unfazed (7-2) ****
Our Eyes: Trainer Arnaud Delacour has a pair in here and no doubt Centeno had is choice and takes this 4-year-old filly which finished second in her first race off the layoff. Delacour is 22% second off the layoff and 26% with Centeno.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 7-4 (both Delacour)

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, March 22

Race 5 – Tam
#7 For My Mom (7-2) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: This filly won over the course in January and has been off since. She moving up in class but leading jockey Daniel Centeno must like what he sees as he takes the mount.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#6 Red Again (5-1) ****
Our Eyes: This gelding made his debut on the turf, showed speed but faded. Centeno keeps the mount for trainer Bill Mott and might have told him dirt is the way to go.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 7 – Tam
#2 Saratoga Ransom (8-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Sorry, Centeno again, This filly has been off the grass in her last five races, but she has a win on the green stuff in the past. The sire Regal Ransom gets 10% winners on turf.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-7-8.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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