Churchill Downs, Horse racing, Kentucky Derby, Tampa Bay Downs

Churchill Downs opinions for Saturday, May 4 (plus some Tampa Bay Downs)

Preview: Expect a wet track at some point today and a softer turf course. Rain is suppose to hit hardest around 1 p.m.

12TH RACE (Grade I Kentucky Derby: 1. Improbable, 2. Game Winner, 3. Roadster, 4. Vekoma. LONG SHOT: By My Standards.
If it’s Derby Day we must be in trainer Bob Baffert’s world and we’re just living in it. Baffert can pull off a race feat here by hitting the trifecta with all three of his entries. Improbable is my choice off his runner-up efforts to Omaha Beach, who had to scratch out of the race with a balky throat. All three of Baffert’s horses, including Game Winner and Roadster, are coming up to the race in fine form and a win by any of them wouldn’t surprise me.

Other Churchill Downs stakes

SIXTH RACE (Grade I Humana Distaff): 1. Talk Veuve to Me, 2. Marley’s Freedom, 3. Spiced Perfection, 4. Emboldened. LONG SHOT: Mia Mischief.

SEVENTH RACE )Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile): 1. Beau Recall, 2. Daddy Is a Legend, 3. Precieuse, 4. Valedictorian. LONG SHOT: Environs.

EIGHTH RACE (Grade I Churchill Downs): 1. Do Share, 2. Mitole, 3. Uncontested, 4. Whitmore. LONG SHOT: Warrior’s Club.

NINTH RACE (Grade II American Turf): 1. Marquee Prince, 2. Seismic Wave, 3. Digital Age, 4. Social Paranoia. LONG SHOT: Henley’s Joy.

10TH RACE (Grade III Pat Day Mile): 1. Instagrand, 2. Durkin’s Call, 3. Mr Money Bags, 4. Last Judgment. LONG SHOT: Dunph.

11TH RACE (Grade I Turf Classic): 1. Brick and Mortar (best bet), 2. Multiplier, 3. Ticonderoga, 4. Next Shares. LONG SHOT: Synchrony.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS
FOURTH RACE: 1. Sir Higgins, 2. Market Swings, 3. No choice. LONG SHOT: Trap Music.
SEVENTH RACE: 1. Pure Luck, 2. Silver Shield, 3. Solid. LONG SHOT: Edelman’s Catch.
10TH RACE: 1. Sugar Cane Girl, 2. Crown of Joy, 3. Speeding Starlet. LONG SHOT: Patient Digna.
Good luck.
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Churchill Downs, Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Churchill Downs opinions for Friday, May 3 (plus one from Tampa Bay)

At Churchill Downs

11TH RACE (Grade I Kentucky Oaks): 1. Street Band, 2. Bellafina, 3. Flor de La Mar, 4. Jaywalk. LONG SHOT: Out for a Spin.
Bellafina will be rightfully favored but I still don’t like that race last year in the Breeders” Cup Juvenile Fillies over this track. I’m not buying the she was “in season” excuse. Maybe she doesn’t like this track. We’ll see. Trainer Larry Jones knows how to get fillies ready for this race and Street Band is tearing up the track in the morning after winning the Fair Grounds Oaks.

Other races

FIFTH RACE (Grade II Eight Belles): 1. Lyrical Lady, 2. Mother Mother, 3. Take Charge Angel, 4. Break Even. LONG SHOT: Proud Emma.

SIXTH RACE (Grade III Edgewood): 1. Newspaperofrecord, 2. Concrete Rose, 3. Cambier Parc, 4. Fortunate Girl. LONG SHOT: Winter Sunset.

SEVENTH RACE (Grade II Alysheba): 1. Tom’s d’Etat, 2. Seeking the Soul, 3. McKinzie, 4. Prime Attraction. LONG SHOT: Bourbon Resolution.

EIGHTH RACE (Grade I La Troienne): 1. Divine Miss Grey, 2. She’s a Julie, 3. Blue Prize, 4. Secret Spice. LONG SHOT: Mopotism.

NINTH RACE (Allowance): 1. Mojo Man, 2. Rugbyman, 3. American Tattoo, 4. Solid Wager. LONG SHOT: Home Base.

10TH RACE (Turf Sprint): 1. Undrafted, 2. World of Trouble, 3. Angaston, 4. Will Call. LONG SHOT: Chaos Theory.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

SECOND RACE: 1. Discreetly Placed, 2. She Read My Texts, 3. Big Awesome. LONG SHOT: Monkey Money.

Good luck.

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Horse racing, Keeneland, Keeneland Race Course, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs

Keeneland and Oaklawn Park stakes opinions for Saturday, April 13 (Plus Tampa Bay)

KEENELAND

SEVENTH RACE (Ben Ali): 1. Nun the Less 2ND PAID $9.60 TO PLACE, 2. Bonus Points, 3. Hence. LONG SHOT: Third Day.

EIGHTH RACE (Giant’s Causeway): 1. Mrs. Ramona G. SCRATCHED, 2. Morticia WINNER $6.40, 3. Excessivespending COLD EXACTA $26.80. LONG SHOT: Surrender Now. TRIFECTA $27.30 for 50 cents

NINTH RACE (Lexington): 1. Anothertwistafate 2ND PAID $3.60 TO PLACE, 2. Sueno THIRD, 3. Shang. LONG SHOT: Hawaiian Noises.

10TH RACE (Jenny Wiley): 1. Rymska SECOND, 2. Rushing Fall WINNER $3.80 REVERSE EXACTA $7.40, 3. Onthemoonagain, 4. Bellavais.

OAKLAWN PARK

NINTH RACE (Oaklawn Handicap): 1. Quip WINNER $13, 2. Rated R Superstar, 3. Giant Expectations. LONG SHOT: Lookin At Lee.

11TH RACE (Arkansas Derby) : 1. Omaha Beach WINNER $5.40, 2. Galilean, 3. Improbable SECOND, 4. Long Range Toddy. LONG SHOT: Tikhvin Flew.

TAMPA BAY

SECOND RACE: 1. R True Sensation WINNER $5.40, 2. Lovetobehappy, 3. Taylor’s Belle. LONG SHOT: U Know I B Lion.

THIRD RACE: 1. Spectacular Plum WINNER $9, 2. First Reward, 3. Trumpi. LONG SHOT: Candy Cove. COLD EXACTA $66.20; COLD TRIFECTA $102.30 for $1

SIXTH RACE: 1. Architect SECOND AT 19-1 PAID $19.60 TO PLACE, 2. Luna, 3. Itsagimme’s Girl. LONG SHOT: Red Curls.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. Silver Duke WINNER $54.80, 2. Peas and Carrots, 3. Money Broker. LONG SHOT: Tamper (SCRATCHED). COLD EXACTA $189; COLD TRIFECTA $198.55 for 50 cents

Good luck.

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Horse racing, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay Downs

Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Feb. 9

PREVIEW: Had some family issues on Friday so didn’t get to handicap the full Santa Anita card. Beside, it was suppose to rain overnight leaving the condition of the main track and turf course in question. I will be surprised if anything other than the stakes races are run on the grass. I have handicapped only the stakes races in Arcadia today.
I have also included the four stakes races being run at Tampa Bay Downs today.

SANTA ANITA

RACE 5 (Grade Ii Las Virgenes): 1. Bellafina, 2. Enaya Alrabb, 3. Mother Mother. LONG SHOT: Tomlin.

RACE 7 (Grade III Thunder Road): 1. Blackjackcat, 2. Le Ken, 3. River Boyne. LONG SHOT: True Valour.

RACE 9 (Grade II San Marcos): 1. Chicago Style, 2. Beach View, 3. Epical. LONG SHOT: Sejo.
First off, let me say I handicapped this race thinking trainer Bob Baffert will scratch Roman Rosso and Dabster if this race stays on the grass. Both horses have never run on the green stuff and I don’t Baffert intends to do it here. I also don’t think Prince of Arabia will run if it’s not on the main track. Love Chicago Style here. He can handle a softer turf course and others in here have proven they can’t.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

EIGHTH RACE (Grade III Tampa Bay) 1. Qurbaan, 2. Heart to Heart, 3. Inspector Lynley. LONG SHOT: Irish Strait.

NINTH RACE (Suncoast): 1. Her Royal Highness, 2. Sweet Diane, 3. Lady Kate. LONG SHOT: Point of Honor.

10TH RACE (Grade III Endeavour): 1. Get Explicit, 2. Bombshell, 3. Hawksmoor. LONG SHOT: Viva Vegas.
Note: Trainer Chad Brown intends to scratch Rymska and run her at Gulfstream Park.

11TH RACE (Grade III Sam F. Davis): 1. Well Defind, 2. Knicks Go, 3. Cave Run. LONG SHOT: Still Dreaming.

Good luck.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS

Top choice winners: 4 (Runningwscissors $5, first race; Award It $4.20, third; Red King $7.40, sixth; Mobou $4.40, eighth)

Second choice winners: 0

Third choice winners: 2 (Mongolian Window $6.80, second; Ax Man $6.20, seventh)

Long shot winners: 0

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Gulfstream Park, Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Gulfstream Park Pegasus opinions for Saturday, Jan. 26

11TH RACE (Pegasus World Cup Turf): 1. #4 Aerolithe, 2. #7 Bricks and Mortar, 3. #1 Magic Wand, 4. #2 Yoshida. LONG SHOT: #5 Next Shares.
Aerolithe is a 5-year-old mare running against the boys and she has earned more than $3 million in Japan. She gets in light at 112 pounds and great turf jockey Flourent Geroux sees fit to ride her and at 8-1 she has a real shot.Bricks and Mortar has a race over the track and will be closing in the lane. Magic Wand is another female in the race and she was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup F&M Turf in her first U.S. start.

12TH RACE (Pegasus World Cup Invitational) : 1. #10 Audible, 2. #5 Accelerate, 3. #3 City of Light, 4. #8 Gunnevera. LONG SHOT: #12 Patternrecognition.
Audible finished third in the Kentucky Derby to Horse of the Year Justify last spring. He has never finished worse than second over this track in three tries. He finished second here in his first race against older last month but the prize was this spot. Obviously, Accelerate and City of Light are the horses to beat. Gunnevera is another horse for the course with a record of 9-4-2-2 here.

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Saturday, Jan. 26

SIXTH RACE: #8 Salsa Jack (7-2)

EIGHTH RACE: #2 Wagon Boss (8-1)

10TH RACE: #9 Unflappable Max (8-1)

Good luck.

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Friday, April 28

Race 1 – Tam
#2 Kowboy’s Deelite (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly is coming off a win and she was claimed by Maria Bowersock, who is 28% first off the claim.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 2-5-6

Race 4 – Tam
#2 Pikes Peak Or Bust (4-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno rides this filly in her debut. Fort Prado is a good turf sire and Chris Block is a good turf trainer.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show.

Race 6 – Tam
#1 Way (6-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Showed speed on the turf in his debut. Now gets jockey Pablo Morales aboard and he has stolen more than a few races this meet on the grass. Look for more of the same.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 1-3-7.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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Horse racing, Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs opinions for Wednesday, April 26

Race 4 – Tam
#6 Adios Ashley (15-1) TURF ONLY ****
Our Eyes: Jockey Pablo Morales has proven to be a master on the turf this meet. This filly has the second-best speed figure at the distance and the switch to Morales might bring in this long shot..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-7-2.

Race 6 – Tam
#8 Tizk Tizk (6-1) ****
Our Eyes: Leading jockey Daniel Centeno rides this gelding for the first tome. There are a couple of other firsts like going two turns and going long on the grass, but with Centeno it’s all good at the price.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-7-3.

Race 7 – Tam
#6 Cool Seas (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Another big jockey change here to Centeno. This filly comes out of a key race where the first two runners to come back have both won. #2 Commissioned is in the same boat but more upside to Cool Seas.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-2.

Race 8 – Tam
#6 Martini Glass (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: This filly has never won on the turf but she hasn’t been disgraced either. Trainer Keith Nations is 30% third off the layoff and the filly comes out of a key race.
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 6-8-10.

Race 9 – Tam
#8 Electro Peg (3-1) ****
Our Eyes: Claimed last time out by Dale Bennett, who likely was looking at this spot. Centeno takes over on this closer..
Jeff’s Playbook: 4 units to win, 5 units to place and 6 units to show. EXBX 8-6-5.

Good luck.

@Jeff_Nahill on Twitter

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