Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for Wednesday, July 17 (Opening day)

Note: As some of you know, my computer was stolen last month and still don’t have a new one. I’m using an old computer which doesn’t have my program on it that I use for my picks so this will be interesting. Good luck to all this season at the seaside oval.

FIRST RACE: 1. I Can Do This, 2. Julius, 3. Mr. Magico. LONG SHOT: Surprise Fashion.
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SECOND RACE: 1. Ward ‘n Jerry, 2. United, 3. Starting Bloc. LONG SHOT: Via Egnatia.
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THIRD RACE: 1. Monsajem Accrete, 2. Ted W, 3. Avanti Bello. LONG SHOT: Gran Fiesta.
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FOURTH RACE: 1. Incensed, 2. Giddymeister, 3. Roaring Rule. LONG SHOT: Quality Line.
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FIFTH RACE: 1. Flower Point, 2. Tiger Silk, 3. Miss Hot Legs. LONG SHOT: Wandering Patrol.
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SIXTH RACE: 1. Lucky Daughter, 2. I Want One, 3. Arouse N Go. LONG SHOT: Golden Goddess.
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SEVENTH RACE: 1. SMILING SHIRLEE (Best bet), 2. Sassyserb, 3. Very Boisterous. LONG SHOT: Liberalism.
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EIGHTH RACE: 1. King of Speed, 2. Nolde, 3. Jasikan. LONG SHOT: Legends of War.
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NINTH RACE: 1. Bellerin, 2. Coil Me Home, 3. King Jack. LONG SHOT: Buckys Pick.
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10TH RACE: 1. Flicflac, 2. Give Me the Lute, 3. Play Money. LONG SHOT: Sidepocket Action.

Good luck.

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Del Mar, Horse racing

Del Mar opinions for 2019 Summer season

Every year horsemen point for the Del Mar meeting and hold back horses just to try and make a score at the seaside oval.
This 80th season should be no different, but there could be a lot different.
With the Santa Anita debacle, the state has lost plenty of its horse inventory.
You are going to see fewer races at Del Mar and smaller fields, which in turn means lower payoffs and likely more favorites winning races. Del Mar is likely to back load its cards in order to have more horses in the Pick Six races, which are the last six events of each day. It also means shorter fields for the first Pick Five, which Del Mar runs on the first five events of the day, but probably larger payoffs in the late Pick Five, which Del Mar added last year.
Long shots will come, just maybe not as frequently as in the past.
Here are some jockeys and trainers to watch during the summer meet with stats provided by Jim Mazur’s The Del Mar Handicapper 2019 (www.proghandicap.com):

Jockeys
The colony hasn’t changed too much except for the loss of Tyler Baze, who left Southern California during the spring for points east, most notably Kentucky. Baze will ride today on opening day but that might be his only appearance unless he has a stakes engagement or two.
Flavien Prat continues to lead the Southern California colony, especially in turf races. The France native just has a knack for the green stuff, but make no mistake he can ride on the dirt, too. When Prat teams up with trainers Richard Baltas, Simon Callaghan, Phil D’Amato and Peter Miller watch out. Prat and Miller won 47 percent of their races at the 2018 meet (7 for 15).
Drayden Van Dyke has grown up on the circuit since his apprentice days and is tough to deal with day in and day out. Van Dyke rides for all the top outfits, including Bob Baffert, John Sadler and Michael McCarthy.
Veteran Rafael Bejarano seems to have regained his magic from years past and he can be deadly when trying to get a horse home in the stretch. Joe Talamo is a steady rider who has made inroads into the Baffert barn.
Victor Espinoza is back after getting hurt at last year’s meet and Aaron Gryder has returned to the circuit full-time. Hall of Famer Mike Smith will ride a lot of the stakes races so if shows up on other horses take note.
Watch out for Amir Cedillo, who has moved his tack from Northern California and will get plenty of mounts from trainers on that circuit. Cedillo’s mounts have won $2.3 million this year and $19.4 million in his career.
On the apprentice front, Jose Velez just won the nine-day Los Alamitos meet and J.C. Diaz has booted home some good-priced horses while carrying the weight allowance so many trainers like.

Trainers
When talking Del Mar and training, the first name out of most people’s mouth is Baffert. The silver-fox loves to show off his bright, shiny new 2-year-olds at the seaside oval. The problem is Baffert’s horses almost always go favored and for good reason because they are always well-meant first time out. However, if you bet on every Baffert horse over the last three years you would be down $94 and the average price of his winners is just $6. Ouch. A good angle is to bet the “other” Baffert when he enters two horses in the same race.
Other top trainers but losing propositions the last three years are D’Amato (minus $178), Doug O’Neill (minus minus $311) and Keith Desormeaux (minus $122). It should be noted that banned trainer Jerry Hollendorfer showed a loss of $253 the last three years despite 27 winners and his horses will run with his assistant Dan Ward this season.
North County resident Miller has been the Del Mar king the last three summers with 66 winners and a profit of $73, but it should be noted that he has moved approximately 33 percent of his stock out of state due to new regulations so it will be interesting to see what happens. Miller only has horses entered in two races over the first two days of the meet. Miller does well in all categories.
Shockingly, the Sadler barn has shown a $206 profit the last three years and average price of $17 with his winners. Sadler always has top stock, especially for Hronis Racing, and when his turf sprinters win they average $38.
Jeff Bonde (plus $136) and Jim Cassidy (plus $106) have shown a profit over the last three years. You have to watch out for Bonde with California-bred horses and Cassidy also seems to have a way with turf sprinters.
An under-the-radar trainer to watch out for is Andrew Lerner, who was 3 for 9 last summer. Lerner is very good with horses making their first start of the meet and first start off of a 30-day layoff. He has increased his stock this year and can also play the claiming game.

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Horse racing

Santa Anita opinions

Note to readers: I was all set to provide selections for Santa Anita on Friday but when I got home from work Thursday night I discovered my computer and other devices at my residence had been stolen. As you can guess this has thrown me for a loop and am unsure when I will post picks again. As we all know computers don’t grow on trees. Hopefully by the opening of Del Mar I will be back in business, but I had all my programs and stuff on that computer so it will be a little while. Thanks for reading. JN

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, June 8

FIRST: 1. Tammy’s Window, 2. Super Patriot, 3. Candy Swirls. LONG SHOT: Fool’s Paradise.

SECOND: 1. Miss That Kat, 2. Jack’s Diva, 33. I Belong to Becky. LONG SHOT: Handsome John.

THIRD: 1. Dukes Up, 2. Oh Man, 3. Top of the Game. LONG SHOT: Mongolian Humor.

FOURTH: 1. Desmond Doss, 2. My Journey, 3. Flicflac. LONG SHOT: Bud Knight.

FIFTH: 1. Time for Kisses, 2. Convince, 3. A Dime for Me. LONG SHOT: Miss Bennet.

SIXTH: 1. Don’t Sell, 2. Great Return, 3. G Q Covergirl. LONG SHOT: Tizanillusion.

SEVENTH: 1. For Him, 2. Rick’s Dream, 3. Market Sentiment. LONG SHOT: Nova.

EIGHTH: 1. Factorial, 2. Overdue, 3. Ultimate Bango. LONG SHOT: Hootie.

NINTH: 1. San Giorgio, 2. Wicken Fen, 3. Lil Sydney. LONG SHOT: Red Valor.

10TH: 1. Formal Dude, 2. Drink, 3. Scrambled. LONG SHOT: Union Station.

Good luck

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Belmont Park, Horse racing

Belmont Park stakes opinions for Saturday, June 8

THIRD RACE (Easy Goer): 1. Outshine, 2. Alwaysmining, 3. Majid, 4. Dream Maker. LONG SHOT: Still Dreaming.

FOURTH RACE (Grade I Just A Game): 1. Beau Recall, 2. Rushing Fall, 3. Got Stormy, 4. Environs. LONG SHOT: Daddy Is a Legend.

FIFTH RACE (Grade I Ogden Phipps): 1. Escape Clause, 2. Midnight Bisou, 3. Come Dancing, 4. Mopotism. LONG SHOT: Pacific Wind.

SIXTH RACE (Grade I Jaipur): 1. World of Trouble, 2. Undrafted, 3. Dirty, 4. Belvoir Bay. LONG SHOT: Diamond Oops.

SEVENTH RACE (Grade I Acorn): 1. Cookie Dough, 2. Serengeti Empress, 3. Queen of Beas, 4. Guarana. LONG SHOT: Ce Ce.

EIGHTH RACE (Grade I Woody Stephens): 1. Honest Mischief, 2. Much Better, 3. Wendell Fong, 4. Complexity. LONG SHOT: Lexitonian.

NINTH RACE (Grade I Met Mile): 1. Prince Lucky, 2. McKenzzie, 3. Mitole, 4. Firenze Fire. LONG SHOT: Coal Front.

10TH RACE (Grade I Manhattan): 1. Channel Maker, 2. Raging Bull, 3. Bricks and Mortar, 4. Robert Bruce. LONG SHOT: Channel Cat.

11TH RACE (Grade I Belmont) : 1. Spinoff, 2. War of Will, 3. Tacitus, 4. Bourbon War. LONG SHOT: Sir Winston.
This isn’t the Belmont expected, especially with no Kentucky Derby winner or any Bob Baffert-trained horses entered. It is, what it is. Spinoff has been given time off since the Derby when he was wide throughout. If Javier Castellano can use this 3-year-old’s speed and keep close to the pace, I think he has a shot at a price. War of Will showed in the Preakness that the Derby trouble was real. Tacitus seems to be everyone’s favorite.

13TH RACE (Grade II Brooklyn): 1. Campaign, 2. Marconi, 3. Rocketry, 4. You’re to Blame. LONG SHOT: Sonneteer.

Good luck.

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Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Horse racing

Churchill Downs opinions for Saturday, June 8 (Updated)

PREVIEW: Several jockeys are at Belmont Park today so jockey Florent Geroux has picked up a lot of mounts, especially for trainer Steve Asmussen, so Geroux could have a very big day. Don’t sleep on him.

NOTE: They are sloppy and off the turf in races 5 and 8. So take these picks with a grain of salt. Look for wet track pedigree.

FIRST: 1. Zyramid, 2. Nucky, 3. Halfmoon Reef. LONG SHOT: Cheeseburger.

SECOND: 1. Lunar Approach, 2.Ransomed, 3. Day by Day. LONG SHOT: Game Time Decision.

THIRD: 1. Magical, 2. Pretty Greeley, 3. Maybe Wicked. LONG SHOT: Special Relativity.

FOURTH: 1. Don’teatmycookies, 2. (Entry) Dilly Dally Darby and Estrela Cadente, 3. Indicating. LONG SHOT: Pinotage.

FIFTH: 1. Confessing (best bet), 2. Our Bay B Ruth, 3. Silver Kitten. LONG SHOT: Lady Rosalie. OFF THE TURF IGNORE PICKS

SIXTH: 1. Better Charge It, 2. Light of the World, 3. On d;Oro. LONG SHOT: Kansas City Zip.

SEVENTH: 1. Make Noise, 2. Paddock Pick, 3. Mine My Time. LONG SHOT: Brush Country.

EIGHTH: 1. Cosmic Code, 2. Be Nimble, 3. Bella Laura. LONG SHOT: Talbeya. OFF THE TURF IGNORE PICKS

NINTH: 1. Combatant, 2. Matrooh, 3. Solomini. LONG SHOT: Kershaw.

10TH: 1. Mom’s On Strike, 2. Limari, 3. Stave. LONG SHOT: Smart Emma.

11TH: 1. Ready and Rich, 2. New Frontier, 3. Admiral Brown. LONG SHOT: Not Very Gentle.

Good luck.

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Horse racing, Santa Anita

Santa Anita opinions for Saturday, June 1

Preview: Looks like a very chalky card so go light.

FIRST RACE: 1. Aussie Fox, 2. Boru, 3. Conquest Smartee. LONG SHOT: Righful.

SECOND RACE: 1. Tiz Toffee, 2. Ciao Luna, 3. Pied N True. LONG SHOT: Cee Sam’s Girl.

THIRD RACE: 1. Bitter Ring Home, 2. Tough It Out, 3. Snazzy Dresser. LONG SHOT: Play Hard to Get.

FOURTH RACE: 1. Beleth, 2. Comical Ghost, 3. Oakland Mills. LONG SHOT: C Falls.

FIFTH RACE: 1. Foster Boi (best bet), 2. Juggles, 3. Silver Summer. LONG SHOT: Rinse and Repeat.

SIXTH RACE: 1. Morning Show, 2. Moana Luna, 3. King Jack. LONG SHOT: Dinesen.

SEVENTH RACE: 1. Seranitsa, 2. Holly Hundy, 3. Maximum Rate. LONG SHOT: Hostess.

EIGHTH RACE: 1. Paradise Woods, 2. La Force, 3. Tapped. LONG SHOT: Just a Smidge.

NINTH RACE: 1. Queen of Mean, 2. Pricing, 3. Jaccat. LONG SHOT: Tell It Again.

Good luck.

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