Horse racing

Jeff Nahill’s Breeders’ Cup (Day 1) opinions for Friday, Nov. 6 (Races 6-10)

Overview: The 2-year-olds take to the track on Friday and it could be a wild day. Couple of things I’ve changed my mind on over past years. Irish trainer Aiden O’Brien used to be a go to for me on BC days, but his record just doesn’t warrant it anymore. The stat I saw I think is he is 1 for 48 in the States recently. Ouch. Here’s another one: Bob Baffert is 1 for 21 since 2017 in the Breeders’ Cup and he is under so much scrutiny this year for drug positives in high profile races that it might hurt the barn. That being said, it probably mean bet O’Brien and Baffert to the hilt. One other note, at the start of the week, I thought the Keeneland turf course was going to be very soft. However, each day I’ve seen report of it getting firmer each day. It will likely be listed good or firm.


SIXTH RACE (BC Juvenile Turf Sprint): 1. Dirty Dangle, 2. Golden Pal, 3. Cowan, 4. Amanzi Yimpilo. LONG SHOT: Ubettabelieveit.

Wide open race in my mind since the 8-5 morning-line favorite Golden Pal drew the outside No. 14 post. Dirty Dangle looks like a private purchase by owner Gary Barber for trainer Mark Casse out of a pair of wins at Woodbine and she looks good. Also note that Amanzi Yimpilo is another filly in this race against the boys, who she beat at Santa Anita. I think trainer Wesley Ward sent her West due to the firm ground so would definitely like her more is the grass is listed as firm.


SEVENTH RACE (BC Juvenile Turf): 1. Abarta, 2. Gretzy the Great, 3. Cadillac, 4. Mutasaabeg. LONG SHOT: Ebeko.

Another tough race and I’m just not that hip on the Euros here except for Cadillac. Abarta put blinkers on, had to alter course last race and Umberto Rispoli rides and everyone is California knows how good Rispoli is on the grass. I’m not sure how good Ebeko is but he has jockey Flavien Prat and trainer Peter Miller on his side.

EIGHTH RACE (BC Juvenile Fillies): 1. Crazy Beautiful, 2. Vequist, 3. Simply Ravishing, 4. Princess Noor. LONG SHOT; Girl Daddy.

Princess Noor is a from the Baffert barn and she’s the 9-5 morning-line favorite but who has she been beating here in California. I guess we find out today. Crazy Beautiful is 20-1 on the morning-line. She was favored last time in the Alcibides at Keeneland when she got beat by stablemate Simply Ravishing. If you’r going to give me 20-1 on Crazy, I’m going to take it.


NINTH RACE (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf): 1. Alda (best bet), 2. Madone, 3. Royal Approval, 4. Spanish Loveaffair. LONG SHOT: Nazuna.

Alda is from the Graham Motion barn and she finished second at Woodbine in her last. Two horses have come back to win out of that race, making it a key race. Madone is undefeated here in California and Prat stays on.


10TH RACE (BC Juvenile); 1. Essential Quality, 2. Rombauer, 3. Jackie’s Warrior, 4. Sittin On Go. LONG SHOT: Keepmeinmind.

Essential Quality was impressive winning his stakes debut at Keeneland last month and he comes right back. Rombauer was a turf horse until he finished second in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita. That race has produced two next out winners. Jackie’s Warrior is the hot shot from New York and very well dust there but at 7-5 I’m looking elsewhere.

Good luck. Stay safe.

Standard

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s